Latest trade
Sep 9, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 25, 8:38 PM UTC.
Analytics
moonrise-clump is down $1.69 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-25 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Sep 9, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 25, 8:38 PM UTC.
$5 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 43 markets; 94.0% were buys. They run from Aug 1, 2026 UTC to Sep 9, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 38.17 | $0.917 | $36.93 | +$1.93 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Yes | buy | 7.69 | $0.650 | $5 | Sep 9, 2026 UTC |
 |
Accepted Polymarket leaderboard snapshot
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-25 19:09 UTC
Polymarket public position response
50 open positions returned; page coverage partial
2026-10-25 20:38 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-25 20:38 UTC
polymarket positions
52 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-09-16 20:05 UTC
Rank, profit and volume come from Polymarket's leaderboard; positions, the chart and trades are read live. Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $172.62 and losing ones cost $195.99 across the latest 50 settled positions. 48% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $21.04 on “Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?” (Yes); the largest loss, $15.04 on “Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?” (No).
It first traded on 25 Jan 2026 and most recently on 9 Sep 2026. It has traded 1,067 markets. Its open positions are worth $503.12 across 165 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| No |
| 17.27 |
| $0.695 |
| $13.56 |
| +$1.56 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 14.31 | $0.688 | $13.52 | +$3.68 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 24.11 | $0.664 | $12.41 | -$3.59 |
 Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 10.4 | $0.962 | $10.27 | +$0.27 |
 Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027? | No | 11.36 | $0.880 | $10.11 | +$0.11 |
 NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | No | 9.59 | $0.835 | $8.92 | +$0.92 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 9.2 | $0.652 | $8.7 | +$2.7 |
 Weed rescheduled by December 31? | No | 8.96 | $0.558 | $8.17 | +$3.17 |
 Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? | No | 8.28 | $0.725 | $7.99 | +$1.99 |
 Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 11.62 | $0.861 | $7.78 | -$2.22 |
 Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026? | No | 9.08 | $0.551 | $7.76 | +$2.76 |
 Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | No | 7.31 | $0.958 | $6.94 | -$0.06 |
 Will knots flip bitcoin core before 2027? | No | 9.11 | $0.549 | $6.7 | +$1.7 |
 Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | No | 7.43 | $0.673 | $6.54 | +$1.54 |
 Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? | No | 6.76 | $0.740 | $6.41 | +$1.41 |
 Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | No | 6.67 | $0.750 | $6.41 | +$1.41 |
 Human moon landing in 2026? | No | 6.27 | $0.957 | $6.19 | +$0.19 |
 Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | Anthropic | 6.67 | $0.750 | $6.1 | +$1.1 |
 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | No | 6.25 | $0.800 | $6.08 | +$1.08 |
 Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | No | 6.1 | $0.820 | $5.7 | +$0.7 |
 Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 5.88 | $0.850 | $5.7 | +$0.7 |
 Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026? | No | 6.41 | $0.780 | $5.61 | +$0.61 |
 Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | No | 5.62 | $0.890 | $5.48 | +$0.48 |
 Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? | No | 5.85 | $0.855 | $5.41 | +$0.41 |
| buy |
| 10.2 |
| $0.490 |
| $5 |
| Sep 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 7.35 | $0.680 | $5 | Sep 9, 2026 UTC |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 5.62 | $0.890 | $5 | Sep 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 6.76 | $0.740 | $5 | Sep 9, 2026 UTC |
 Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 18.6 | $0.200 | $3.72 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
 Next Mythos-Class Model released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 16.04 | $0.935 | $15 | Aug 29, 2026 UTC |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.02 | $0.830 | $5 | Aug 29, 2026 UTC |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 12.4 | $0.310 | $3.84 | Aug 29, 2026 UTC |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.900 | $5 | Aug 29, 2026 UTC |
 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.92 | $0.844 | $5 | Aug 29, 2026 UTC |
 Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 11.36 | $0.880 | $10 | Aug 29, 2026 UTC |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?No | buy | 3.85 | $0.260 | $1 | Aug 29, 2026 UTC |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.54 | $0.648 | $1 | Aug 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 7.46 | $0.670 | $5 | Aug 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 17.44 | $0.860 | $15 | Aug 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 5.17 | $0.968 | $5 | Aug 15, 2026 UTC |
 Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?Yes | buy | 5.95 | $0.840 | $5 | Aug 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?No | buy | 5.62 | $0.890 | $5 | Aug 15, 2026 UTC |
 Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?No | buy | 5.26 | $0.950 | $5 | Aug 15, 2026 UTC |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No | buy | 7.14 | $0.700 | $5 | Aug 15, 2026 UTC |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No | buy | 7.14 | $0.700 | $5 | Aug 15, 2026 UTC |
 Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 5.12 | $0.977 | $5 | Aug 15, 2026 UTC |
 New pandemic in 2026?No | buy | 5.26 | $0.950 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
 Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No | buy | 3.12 | $0.963 | $3 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "MIT" or "Massachusetts Institute of Technology" in August?No | buy | 2.5 | $0.400 | $1 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Gaza" in August?Yes | buy | 5.68 | $0.880 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in August?Yes | buy | 6.33 | $0.790 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
 Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.100 | $1 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
 Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?No | buy | 5.16 | $0.969 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 1.49 | $0.670 | $1 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 3.57 | $0.840 | $3 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 21.51 | $0.930 | $20 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?No | buy | 5.25 | $0.953 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | buy | 5.1 | $0.981 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No | buy | 5.49 | $0.910 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?No | buy | 5.56 | $0.900 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.81 | $0.861 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.33 | $0.790 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?No | buy | 5.26 | $0.950 | $5 | Aug 9, 2026 UTC |
 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No | buy | 4.17 | $0.480 | $2 | Aug 4, 2026 UTC |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No | buy | 2.63 | $0.760 | $2 | Aug 4, 2026 UTC |
 Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes | buy | 4.41 | $0.680 | $3 | Aug 4, 2026 UTC |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 37.21 | $0.134 | $5 | Aug 4, 2026 UTC |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.200 | $2 | Aug 1, 2026 UTC |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes | buy | 6.94 | $0.720 | $5 | Aug 1, 2026 UTC |
 Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.9 | $0.339 | $2 | Aug 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?No | buy | 15.96 | $0.940 | $15 | Aug 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?No | buy | 20.62 | $0.970 | $20 | Aug 1, 2026 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.