Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 21 points from 30% when the market opened on 9 Apr 2026.
The high was 56.5% on 8 May 2026 and the low 4.5% on 18 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 8.5%; a month ago, 12.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 8% on 6 Jun 2026.
$10.000+ ranks fourth of the 4 outcomes in “Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?”. $7.000+ leads at 57.5%; $8.000+ is at 17.5%.
$19.61K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $277.96, with a 13.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 94 trades, $5.35K bought Yes and $6.19K bought No; the largest was a $5.01K buy of Yes at 93.9¢.
The largest Yes position is erlichbachmn with 407 shares; the largest No position is rabbit007 with 637. Ten wallets hold 84.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 84 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 9, 2:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 173 points · 9 Apr 2026 – 9 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 30.0% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rabbit007 | No | 636.64 |
| erlichbachmn | Yes | 407.05 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 245 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026
| apiwat |
| No |
| 146.8 |
| shisushi | No | 115.6 |
| redpanda135 | No | 98.08 |
| AJSV | Yes | 71.12 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 65 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 60.93 |
| acal | Yes | 54.85 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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