Analytics
Yes is at 16.5%, down 43 points from 59.5% when the market opened on 9 Apr 2026.
Across the 188 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 74.5% on 13 Jun 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 18 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16.5%; a month before, 19%. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 12.5% on 7 Sep 2026.
$8.000+ ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?”. $7.000+ leads at 49.5%; $9.000+ is at 19%.
$2.44K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $498.06, with a 21.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 64 trades, $159.86 bought Yes and $1K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 85 shares; the largest No position is rabbit007 with 286. Ten wallets hold 85.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 188 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 59.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 16.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rabbit007 | No | 285.59 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 84.88 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 50.01 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026
| cledont | Yes | 50 |
| Stormy-Tower | Yes | 46.88 |
| repl-others | No | 42.84 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 40.01 |
| xixihaha009 | Yes | 20 |
| APSB4UC | Yes | 19.23 |
| romanew-1-new | Yes | 15.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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