Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 90.5%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 1 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 90.5% on 16 Sep 2026 and the low 13% on 29 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 48% on 15 Jul 2026. $1.06M traded over the market's life.
393 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 156 points · 1 Apr 2026 – 16 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2026 | 19.5% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 90.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jack88999 | No | 183.77K |
| capybara007 | No | 21.29K |
| balthazar | No | 14.43K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-by
| No |
| 4.9K |
| zhenheng | No | 4.49K |
| drews888 | No | 4.12K |
| Hurtful-Wagon | No | 2.47K |
| 0xC91b7D9F4464C9985f5621493829ahdfc | No | 2.22K |
| GollumGekko | No | 2.17K |
| SportsRecord | No | 2.07K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
