Analytics
Yes is at 3.8%, down 4.3 points from 8% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 329 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12.5% on 6 Dec 2025 and the lowest 1.8% on 31 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.2%; a month before, 2.4%. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points up, to 11.5% on 29 Nov 2025.
$124.36 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $457.28K since listing. The order book holds $74.38K, with a 0.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.03K bought Yes and $6.54K bought No; the largest was a $2.34K buy of No at 97.5¢.
The largest Yes position is HoneybeeAlliance with 43.2K shares; the largest No position is Solar Raven A90C with 25K. Ten wallets hold 76.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 329 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 8.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HoneybeeAlliance | Yes | 43.24K |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 25.04K |
| Keen Maven 6B9A | No | 10.57K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027
| 500EUR | No | 4.21K |
| Loyalty-Crash | No | 4.09K |
| elmcap2 | No | 3.84K |
| 57284910 | No | 3.15K |
| Lean-Crime | Yes | 3.13K |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 3K |
| G8RQxf3vBMVT | Yes | 2.38K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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