Analytics
“Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?” is a tech prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved Yes on 1 Sep 2026. $96.68K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 26 daily price points from Aug 7, 2026 UTC to Sep 1, 2026 UTC (Yes between 31.5% and 90.0%); 48 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 92.0% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 295 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-mythos-class-model-released-by
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 26 points · 7 Aug 2026 – 1 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 51.5% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 90.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | No | 26.96K |
| Mithrandir. | No | 3.1K |
| HerrieDavis | No |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 2.89K |
| LovelyPanda | No | 2K |
| Mac-Gyver | No | 1.84K |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | No | 1.5K |
| DualDelta | No | 999.99 |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | No | 900 |
| labistiiia | No | 894.73 |
| BikesAreTheBikes | No | 569.62 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
