Fed rate hike in 2026?

economyResolved

Yes, settled Sep 16, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$10.1M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 16, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 16 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 95.5%. Yes opened at 29% on 11 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 256 daily closes on record from 11 Dec 2025 to 16 Sep 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95.5% on 16 Sep 2026 and the lowest 6% on 3 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 10% on 12 Dec 2025. $10.12M traded over the market's life.

727 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 256 points, 11 Dec 2025 – 16 Sep 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
lymphnatic	No	259.45K
ololololololololo	No	142.15K
coali10	No	135.1K

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.