Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes | buy | 98.36 | $0.610 | $60 | Jan 3, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 8.33 |
| $0.450 |
| $3.75 |
| Jan 3, 2026 |
 U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 7.93 | $0.996 | $7.9 | Jan 3, 2026 |
 Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?Yes | sell | 17.85 | $0.902 | $16.09 | Jan 3, 2026 |
 Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?No | sell | 5.02 | $0.850 | $4.27 | Jan 1, 2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?Yes | sell | 22.37 | $0.650 | $14.54 | Jan 1, 2026 |
 US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | buy | 37.04 | $0.270 | $10 | Jan 1, 2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?Yes | buy | 17.86 | $0.280 | $5 | Jan 1, 2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?Yes | buy | 22.39 | $0.670 | $15 | Jan 1, 2026 |
 Megaquake by June 30?No | buy | 31.72 | $0.631 | $20 | Jan 1, 2026 |
 5kt meteor strike in 2026?No | buy | 33.33 | $0.630 | $21 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?Yes | sell | 3.96K | $0.001 | $3.96 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?No | sell | 11.11 | $0.940 | $10.44 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 15.62 | $0.440 | $6.87 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.94 | $0.630 | $5 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 5.74 | $0.870 | $4.99 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: JanuaryNo | buy | 42.55 | $0.470 | $20 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190–195 in 2025?Yes | buy | 75.79 | $0.132 | $10 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | sell | 110.71 | $0.272 | $30.09 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Will SZA release a new song in 2025?No | buy | 32.38 | $0.105 | $3.4 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?No | buy | 11.11 | $0.900 | $10 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.600 | $5 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Will SZA release a new song in 2025?No | buy | 26.01 | $0.769 | $20 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Yes | sell | 172.8 | $0.220 | $38.02 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?No | buy | 5.03 | $0.995 | $5 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?Yes | sell | 361.26 | $0.013 | $4.64 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | buy | 110.71 | $0.280 | $31 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No | buy | 22.44 | $0.780 | $17.5 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 2.27K | $0.014 | $31.83 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 2.5K | $0.007 | $17.5 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 5.75 | $0.870 | $5 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 2.5K | $0.002 | $5 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 15.63 | $0.560 | $8.75 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes | sell | 16.03 | $0.010 | $0.16 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 714.28 | $0.012 | $8.57 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?Yes | buy | 361.26 | $0.017 | $6.25 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 111.11 | $0.090 | $10 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Maduro out in 2025?Yes | buy | 20K | $0.005 | $100 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?Yes | buy | 128.56 | $0.156 | $20 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Yes | buy | 172.81 | $0.289 | $50 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 714.29 | $0.014 | $10 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.5K | $0.004 | $10 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 2.5K | $0.008 | $20 | Dec 27, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 10K | $0.003 | $30 | Dec 27, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.21K | $0.090 | $109.29 | Dec 27, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes | sell | 5.2K | $0.016 | $83.18 | Dec 27, 2025 |
 Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27?Yes | buy | 2.67K | $0.017 | $45 | Dec 27, 2025 |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 26?Yes | buy | 12.34K | $0.004 | $45 | Dec 27, 2025 |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 26?Yes | buy | 533.44 | $0.008 | $4.27 | Dec 27, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 333.33 | $0.140 | $46.67 | Dec 27, 2025 |