Analytics
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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 81 | $0.318 | $46.98 | +$21.26 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?No | sell | 8 | $0.480 | $3.84 | 3d ago |
| No |
| 85 |
| $0.420 |
| $36.13 |
| +$0.43 |
 Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Yes | 48 | $0.540 | $33.6 | +$7.68 |
 Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | No | 34.58 | $0.804 | $32.33 | +$4.53 |
 Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 50 | $0.510 | $30.75 | +$5.25 |
 Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 35.29 | $0.680 | $28.41 | +$4.41 |
 Natural Disaster in 2026? | No | 35 | $0.777 | $28.35 | +$1.14 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | No | 100 | $0.140 | $27.7 | +$13.73 |
 Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026? | No | 42 | $0.500 | $25.83 | +$4.83 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | No | 36 | $0.570 | $25.02 | +$4.5 |
 Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? | Yes | 27.99 | $0.730 | $22.53 | +$2.1 |
 Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | No | 50 | $0.410 | $18 | -$2.5 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | Yes | 33.33 | $0.360 | $16.17 | +$4.17 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 18 | $0.750 | $15.66 | +$2.16 |
 X banned in any European country by December 31? | No | 16.9 | $0.710 | $14.96 | +$2.96 |
 Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 14.12 | $0.850 | $13.63 | +$1.63 |
 Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 16.07 | $0.747 | $12.29 | +$0.29 |
 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | 11.43 | $0.700 | $10.8 | +$2.8 |
 Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026? | Yes | 17 | $0.807 | $10.53 | -$3.19 |
 NATO article 5 before 2027? | No | 8.99 | $0.890 | $8.5 | +$0.5 |
 Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | No | 9.09 | $0.880 | $8.5 | +$0.5 |
 Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | No | 9.09 | $0.880 | $8.5 | +$0.5 |
 Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | 8.7 | $0.920 | $8.48 | +$0.48 |
 Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 8.99 | $0.890 | $8.4 | +$0.4 |
 Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 8.66 | $0.924 | $8.33 | +$0.33 |
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?No| sell |
| 20 |
| $0.480 |
| $9.6 |
| 3d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?No | buy | 85 | $0.420 | $35.7 | 4d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No | buy | 100 | $0.140 | $13.97 | 4d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?No | buy | 50 | $0.510 | $25.5 | 5d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?No | buy | 18 | $0.750 | $13.5 | 5d ago |
 Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?No | sell | 11.56 | $0.920 | $10.64 | 5d ago |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 50 | $0.410 | $20.5 | 6d ago |
| Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 42 | $0.500 | $21 | 6d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?No | buy | 36 | $0.570 | $20.52 | 6d ago |
| Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?No | buy | 28 | $0.740 | $20.72 | 7d ago |
 OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?No | sell | 5.63 | $0.740 | $4.17 | 7d ago |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes | buy | 48 | $0.540 | $25.92 | 7d ago |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?No | sell | 8 | $0.740 | $5.92 | 7d ago |
 Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 8 | $0.425 | $3.4 | 7d ago |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?Yes | buy | 17 | $0.807 | $13.72 | 8d ago |
 Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?Yes | sell | 130 | $0.080 | $10.4 | 8d ago |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 25 | $0.392 | $9.81 | 8d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?No | buy | 72 | $0.317 | $22.84 | 11d ago |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 33 | $0.619 | $20.43 | 11d ago |
| Natural Disaster in 2026?No | buy | 7 | $0.790 | $5.53 | 11d ago |
| Natural Disaster in 2026?No | buy | 7 | $0.790 | $5.53 | 11d ago |
| Natural Disaster in 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.790 | $7.9 | 11d ago |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Yes | buy | 27.99 | $0.730 | $20.43 | 11d ago |
 Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 30 | $0.991 | $29.73 | 11d ago |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?Yes | sell | 41 | $0.157 | $6.45 | 12d ago |
 Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.982 | $19.64 | 13d ago |
 Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?Yes | sell | 21.73 | $0.800 | $17.38 | 18d ago |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 85 | $0.028 | $2.38 | 19d ago |
 Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 114 | $0.511 | $58.21 | 19d ago |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No | sell | 15.3 | $0.680 | $10.4 | 20d ago |
 Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 10.3 | $0.930 | $9.58 | 20d ago |
 Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?No | sell | 13.01 | $0.900 | $11.71 | 20d ago |
 Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?No | sell | 14.63 | $0.962 | $14.07 | 20d ago |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 10.7 | $0.930 | $9.95 | 20d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No | sell | 14.7 | $0.680 | $10 | 20d ago |
 Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?No | sell | 50 | $0.061 | $3.05 | 24d ago |
 Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.411 | $8.22 | 25d ago |
| Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?Yes | sell | 23 | $0.422 | $9.7 | 25d ago |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No | sell | 9.3 | $0.963 | $8.96 | 25d ago |
 Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?Yes | sell | 7 | $0.963 | $6.74 | 25d ago |
| Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.960 | $9.6 | 25d ago |
| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?Yes | sell | 60 | $0.140 | $8.4 | 27d ago |
| Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?Yes | buy | 17 | $0.830 | $14.11 | 27d ago |
 Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes | sell | 16.66 | $0.460 | $7.66 | 27d ago |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 39 | $0.250 | $9.75 | 27d ago |
 Will there be at least 15,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.981 | $9.81 | 29d ago |
| Will there be at least 15,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.981 | $9.81 | 29d ago |
 Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Yes | sell | 33 | $0.146 | $4.82 | Aug 13, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?Yes | sell | 75.3 | $0.040 | $3.01 | Aug 13, 2026 |