Analytics
Yes is at 15%, down 31 points from 45.5% when the market opened on 1 Jan 2026.
Across the 284 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 54% on 6 Jan 2026 and the lowest 10% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 19.5%; a month before, 23%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 47% on 12 Aug 2026.
$315.64K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $501.61, with a 12.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.75K bought Yes and $6.41K bought No.
The largest Yes position is LeopoldArschenbrenner with 5.2K shares; the largest No position is powderz with 3K. Ten wallets hold 48.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 4:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 284 points, 1 Jan 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | 45.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 15.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LeopoldArschenbrenner | Yes | 5.22K |
| powderz | No | 3.02K |
| 1660S.eth | No | 1.42K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/5kt-meteor-strike-in-2026
| Notable-Person |
| No |
| 971.8 |
| atomicannie | Yes | 861.17 |
| Poopyface | Yes | 855.01 |
| zk1984 | Yes | 799.98 |
| j4un3 | Yes | 798.65 |
| MrMarket | No | 757.46 |
| ProfessionalPunter | Yes | 709.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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