Analytics
LeopoldArschenbrenner has made $4.86K on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 43 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-25 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 14.1K | $0.360 | $5.15K | +$70.52 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
This view does not establish the wallet’s complete trading history.
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-25 13:13 UTC
Polymarket public position response
50 open positions returned; page coverage partial
2026-10-25 20:23 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
Recent fills unavailable
2026-10-25 20:23 UTC
polymarket positions
44 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-10-25 13:13 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $11.36K and losing ones cost $14.83K across 43 settled positions. 60.5% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $3.1K on “Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?” (Yes); the largest loss, $5.8K on “Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?” (No).
It has traded 68 markets. Its open positions are worth $58.95K across 119 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 31.09K |
| $0.064 |
| $4.77K |
| +$2.78K |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 41.77K | $0.051 | $4.45K | +$2.34K |
 Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 22.87K | $0.207 | $4.06K | -$673.14 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 38.19K | $0.048 | $3.46K | +$1.62K |
 Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 9.98K | $0.540 | $3.44K | -$1.95K |
 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 3.33K | $0.868 | $2.91K | +$21.67 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 3.05K | $0.596 | $2.73K | +$912.54 |
 Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 27.58K | $0.024 | $2.58K | +$1.92K |
 Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 104.22K | $0.018 | $2.03K | +$166.02 |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 25.2K | $0.034 | $1.65K | +$790.47 |
 Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 30.57K | $0.016 | $1.56K | +$1.06K |
 U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | No | 1.67K | $0.547 | $1.51K | +$596.63 |
 Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 1.5K | $0.629 | $1.46K | +$513.17 |
 Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | Yes | 21.31K | $0.145 | $1.17K | -$1.92K |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 46.35K | $0.013 | $1.16K | +$558.05 |
 Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 31.01K | $0.013 | $914.72 | +$501.48 |
 Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 24.54K | $0.008 | $822.01 | +$628.65 |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | Yes | 5.22K | $0.286 | $808.75 | -$684.3 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 4.13K | $0.006 | $707.61 | +$680.49 |
 Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 23.35K | $0.007 | $595.32 | +$438.83 |
 Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 20.79K | $0.007 | $592.66 | +$445.2 |
 Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 1.24K | $0.890 | $578.23 | -$527.3 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 15.24K | $0.007 | $571.5 | +$463.43 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 27.53K | $0.011 | $564.45 | +$271.65 |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.
