Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 15 points from 21.5% when the market opened on 1 Jan 2026.
Across the 260 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2026 to 21 Oct 2026 (34 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 26% on 12 Jan 2026 and the lowest 5% on 12 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 10%. Its largest one-day move was 5 points up, to 15.5% on 31 Aug 2026.
$209.39K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.91K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $873.47 bought Yes and $17.98K bought No; the largest was a $3.4K sell of No at 43.3¢.
The largest Yes position is LeopoldArschenbrenner with 21.5K shares; the largest No position is justme003 with 21K. Ten wallets hold 77.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 260 points, 1 Jan 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | 21.5% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LeopoldArschenbrenner | Yes | 21.53K |
| justme003 | No | 20.98K |
| ProfessionalPunter | Yes | 4.43K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/major-meteor-strike-10kt-in-2026
| DEGENKHAN | No | 3.78K |
| Zarshka | Yes | 3.41K |
| gopfan2 | No | 1.97K |
| Notable-Person | No | 1.71K |
| rocky42010 | Yes | 1.24K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1.19K |
| LornaPredicts | No | 1.18K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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