Latest trade
Oct 25, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 25, 11:43 PM UTC.
Analytics
LeopoldArschenbrenner has made $4.86K on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 42 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-25 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 25, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 25, 11:43 PM UTC.
$10.63 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 14 markets; 86.0% were buys. They run from Oct 21, 2026 UTC to Oct 25, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 14.1K | $0.360 | $5.43K | +$352.55 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No | buy | 2.22K | $0.910 | $2.02K | 13m ago |
 |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-25 13:13 UTC
Polymarket public position response
50 open positions returned; page coverage partial
2026-10-25 23:43 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-25 23:43 UTC
polymarket positions
43 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-10-25 13:13 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $11.36K and losing ones cost $14.54K across 42 settled positions. 61.9% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $3.1K on “Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?” (Yes); the largest loss, $5.8K on “Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?” (No).
Its most recent trade on record was on 25 Oct 2026. It has traded 68 markets. Its open positions are worth $61.9K across 120 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 31.09K |
| $0.064 |
| $4.77K |
| +$2.78K |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 41.77K | $0.051 | $4.72K | +$2.61K |
 Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 22.87K | $0.207 | $4.07K | -$661.7 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 38.19K | $0.048 | $3.59K | +$1.75K |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 9.98K | $0.540 | $3.54K | -$1.85K |
 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 3.33K | $0.868 | $2.91K | +$21.67 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 3.05K | $0.596 | $2.73K | +$912.54 |
 Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 27.58K | $0.024 | $2.58K | +$1.92K |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 2.22K | $0.910 | $2.03K | +$11.11 |
 Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 104.22K | $0.018 | $1.98K | +$113.91 |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 25.2K | $0.034 | $1.65K | +$790.47 |
 Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 30.57K | $0.016 | $1.56K | +$1.06K |
 U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | No | 1.67K | $0.547 | $1.51K | +$596.63 |
 Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 1.5K | $0.629 | $1.45K | +$507.15 |
 Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | Yes | 21.31K | $0.145 | $1.28K | -$1.81K |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 46.35K | $0.013 | $1.16K | +$558.05 |
 Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 31.01K | $0.013 | $914.72 | +$501.48 |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | Yes | 5.22K | $0.286 | $860.93 | -$632.12 |
 Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 24.54K | $0.008 | $822.01 | +$628.65 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 4.13K | $0.006 | $707.61 | +$680.49 |
 Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 23.35K | $0.007 | $595.32 | +$438.83 |
 Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 20.79K | $0.007 | $592.66 | +$445.2 |
 Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 1.24K | $0.890 | $578.86 | -$526.68 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 15.24K | $0.007 | $571.5 | +$463.43 |
| sell |
| 2.94K |
| $0.660 |
| $1.94K |
| 10h ago |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 3.1K | $0.156 | $483.3 | 10h ago |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Yes | sell | 216.44 | $0.060 | $12.99 | 22h ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No | buy | 2.81K | $0.836 | $2.35K | 1d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No | buy | 2.49K | $0.833 | $2.07K | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.021 | $0.15 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.021 | $0.17 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.021 | $0.21 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 11 | $0.021 | $0.23 | 1d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.049 | $4.9 | 1d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 2.96 | $0.049 | $0.15 | 1d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 25.64 | $0.049 | $1.26 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 4.81 | $0.021 | $0.1 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 11 | $0.021 | $0.23 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.021 | $0.15 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.021 | $0.19 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 12 | $0.021 | $0.25 | 1d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.049 | $2.45 | 1d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.049 | $2.45 | 1d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 5.21 | $0.049 | $0.26 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.021 | $1.05 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 1.21K | $0.021 | $25.5 | 1d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 2.5 | $0.049 | $0.12 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 7.55 | $0.021 | $0.16 | 1d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 4.47 | $0.049 | $0.22 | 1d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 79 | $0.021 | $1.66 | 1d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.049 | $4.9 | 2d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 1.35K | $0.050 | $67.41 | 2d ago |
 Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 29.69K | $0.013 | $382.94 | 2d ago |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 8.13K | $0.033 | $264.61 | 2d ago |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 5.31K | $0.022 | $115.49 | 3d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 4.71K | $0.162 | $765.27 | 3d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 0.87 | $0.093 | $0.08 | 3d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 179.03 | $0.093 | $16.65 | 3d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 262.09 | $0.093 | $24.37 | 3d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 69.58 | $0.093 | $6.47 | 3d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 193.46 | $0.093 | $17.99 | 3d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 12.59 | $0.093 | $1.17 | 3d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 89.03 | $0.093 | $8.28 | 3d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 651.96 | $0.093 | $60.63 | 3d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 8.32K | $0.097 | $803.32 | 3d ago |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No | buy | 3.33K | $0.660 | $2.2K | 3d ago |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | sell | 3.33K | $0.660 | $2.2K | 4d ago |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 25.74K | $0.010 | $257.4 | 4d ago |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 25.57K | $0.019 | $485.81 | 4d ago |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 110.29K | $0.020 | $2.21K | 4d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 5.89K | $0.159 | $935.72 | 4d ago |
 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No | sell | 3.33K | $0.562 | $1.87K | 4d ago |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | buy | 6.28K | $0.640 | $4.02K | 4d ago |
4 of 6 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.