What is the “5kt meteor strike in 2026?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: 5kt meteor strike in 2026? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 11.5¢ and No at 88.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 11.5% for Yes and 88.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Mar 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($266.8) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($458.18) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 326 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 46.5% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Oct 2, 5:36 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/5kt-meteor-strike-in-2026) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

5kt meteor strike in 2026? Polymarket Odds

Market reference5kt-meteor-strike-in-2026Updated 12m ago

weatherActive

Closes Mar 1, 2027 UTCrecurringclimate-science

Yes

11.5%

88.5%

Buy Yes 11.5¢Buy No 88.5¢

24h Volume

$267

Liquidity

$458

Closes

Mar 1, 2027 UTC

Yes price

11.5¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

11.5%

88.5%

24h volume

$266.8

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 11.5¢

Open in terminal$266.8 24h vol

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

10m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

5.0%

Observed

12m ago

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

11.5%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

326

Wallets

326

Top 10 share

46%

Yes / No shares

16.16K / 16.16K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

270

Loaded notional

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Oct 2, 5:44 PM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Oct 2, 5:44 PM UTC	11.5%	11.5%
Oct 2, 12:00 AM UTC	12.5%	12.5%
Oct 1, 12:00 AM UTC	20.5%	20.5%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “5kt meteor strike in 2026?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: 5kt meteor strike in 2026? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 11.5¢ and No at 88.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 11.5% for Yes and 88.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Mar 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($266.8) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($458.18) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Oct 2, 5:44 PM UTC

11.5%

Oct 2, 12:00 AM UTC

12.5%

Oct 1, 12:00 AM UTC

20.5%