What is the “Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Gemini 4.0 released by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 79.0¢ and No at 21.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 79.0% for Yes and 21.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($561.98) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($10.68K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 150 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 68.6% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 28, 8:06 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? Polymarket Odds

Market referencegemini-4pt0-released-by-october-31-2026Updated 2m ago

techActive

Closes Nov 1, 2026 UTCgeminiai-releases

Yes

79.0%

21.0%

Buy Yes 79¢Buy No 21¢

24h Volume

$562

Liquidity

$10.7K

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Yes price

79¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

79.0%

21.0%

24h volume

$561.98

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 79¢

Open in terminal$561.98 24h vol

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

2m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

6.0%

Observed

2m ago

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

79.0%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

150

Wallets

150

Top 10 share

69%

Yes / No shares

25.48K / 25.48K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

313

Wallets

139

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
qmmar	Yes	8.46K	72.4%	$8.46K	Sep 18, 10:58 PM UTC
InterestingUser	No	7.43K	30.9%	$7.43K

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

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Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Gemini 4.0 released by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 79.0¢ and No at 21.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 79.0% for Yes and 21.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($561.98) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($10.68K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

qmmar

Yes

8.46K

72.4%

$8.46K

Sep 18, 10:58 PM UTC

InterestingUser

7.43K

30.9%

$7.43K

Trader	Current holding value
qmmar	$6.69K
BrownBees	$3.95K
George.Smiley	$1.6K
InterestingUser	$1.56K
Sustainable-Precision	$1.56K
The-Joker	$948
Dav1d10	$782.7
05005	$510.62
Rumpelstiltskin	$476.67
Smart-bettor7	$447.71
notssf3	$444.91
Contentious-Dinnerdate	$411.87