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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20 | $0.500 | $5.8 | -$4.2 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will any other model be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.090 | $1.8 | 25d ago |
|
| Yes |
| 600 |
| $0.002 |
| $0.3 |
| -$0.9 |
 Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 10 | $0.200 | $0.17 | -$1.84 |
 Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 99.99 | $0.010 | $0.15 | -$0.85 |
 Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 150 | $0.007 | $0.08 | -$0.98 |
| buy |
| 71 |
| $0.080 |
| $5.68 |
| 25d ago |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 43.99 | $0.070 | $3.08 | 25d ago |
| Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 17.5 | $0.143 | $2.5 | 25d ago |
| Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.141 | $2.82 | 25d ago |
| Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 29.85 | $0.140 | $4.18 | 25d ago |
| Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 10.9 | $0.140 | $1.53 | 25d ago |
 Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 16?No | buy | 50.9 | $0.991 | $50.44 | 25d ago |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 16?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | 25d ago |
 Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 7?No | buy | 45 | $0.999 | $44.96 | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C or below on July 7?No | buy | 73.98 | $0.999 | $73.91 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 75 | $0.890 | $66.75 | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 75 | $0.740 | $55.5 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 29.54 | $0.860 | $25.4 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?No | sell | 20 | $0.870 | $17.4 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.090 | $0.9 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 10 | $0.780 | $7.8 | Jun 21, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 65 | $0.920 | $59.8 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | buy | 45 | $0.850 | $38.25 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.840 | $16.8 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Yes | buy | 56 | $0.830 | $46.48 | Jun 11, 2026 |
 Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Yes | buy | 47.46 | $0.968 | $45.94 | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?Yes | buy | 114.99 | $0.006 | $0.69 | Jun 7, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?No | buy | 20 | $0.650 | $13 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?No | buy | 20 | $0.750 | $15 | May 28, 2026 |
 Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes | buy | 11 | $0.099 | $1.09 | May 18, 2026 |
 Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.280 | $2.8 | May 18, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes | sell | 25 | $0.220 | $5.5 | May 18, 2026 |
 Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?No | buy | 20 | $0.100 | $2 | May 18, 2026 |
| Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?No | buy | 5.19 | $0.070 | $0.36 | May 16, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 29.54 | $0.790 | $23.34 | Apr 29, 2026 |
 Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No | buy | 5 | $0.101 | $0.51 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.170 | $1.7 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?No | buy | 20 | $0.740 | $14.8 | Apr 18, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?No | buy | 4.92 | $0.790 | $3.88 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.180 | $1.8 | Apr 18, 2026 |
 DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?No | buy | 10 | $0.220 | $2.2 | Apr 18, 2026 |
 Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.130 | $1.3 | Apr 18, 2026 |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?Yes | buy | 39 | $0.026 | $1.01 | Apr 18, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 72 | $0.014 | $1.01 | Apr 16, 2026 |
 Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?Yes | buy | 91.26 | $0.003 | $0.27 | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.130 | $2.6 | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes | buy | 49.56 | $0.890 | $44.11 | Apr 16, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 16?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.140 | $1.26 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 16?No | buy | 11 | $0.660 | $7.26 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 16?Yes | buy | 208.35 | $0.003 | $0.55 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 16?Yes | buy | 107.97 | $0.004 | $0.43 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 16?Yes | buy | 13.31 | $0.080 | $1.07 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 16?No | buy | 6 | $0.570 | $3.42 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 16?Yes | buy | 90 | $0.013 | $1.16 | Mar 16, 2026 |