Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 25% on 13 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 195 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25.5% on 19 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 25% on 30 Dec 2025. $92.16K traded over the market's life.
104 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 8, 1:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 195 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 1 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | 25.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HardWorkerHoward | Yes | 5.3K |
| George.Smiley | Yes | 2.5K |
| acal | Yes | 1.6K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026
| AaAbBbCcCdDdEeEFfF | Yes | 1.5K |
| Tepid-Notion | Yes | 968.6 |
| ACara | Yes | 929.69 |
| warptrading | Yes | 714.28 |
| TheNorthman | Yes | 570.46 |
| alex2945545 | Yes | 554.36 |
| Worse-Scenario | Yes | 547 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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