What is the “Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 5.5¢ and No at 94.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 5.5% for Yes and 94.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($442.5) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($16.49K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 466 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 54.2% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 14, 2:08 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/erdoan-out-before-2027) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket odds & analytics

Predictions Analytics

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referenceerdoan-out-before-2027Updated just now

politicsActive

Closes Dec 31, 2026geopoliticsturkey

Yes

5.5%

94.5%

Buy Yes 5.5¢Buy No 94.5¢

24h Volume

$443

Liquidity

$16.5K

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Yes price

5.5¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

5.5%

94.5%

24h volume

$442.5

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 5.5¢

Open in terminal$442.5 24h vol

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

2m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

1.0%

Observed

just now

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

5.5%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

466

Wallets

466

Top 10 share

54%

Yes / No shares

175.4K / 175.39K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

139

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Rhabarberbarbarbar	No	60K	50.0%	$593.84K
Rhabarberbarbarbar	Yes	60K	50.0%	$593.84K

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 5.5¢ and No at 94.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 5.5% for Yes and 94.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($442.5) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($16.49K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
momom	$25.21K
alihanyer	$21.47K
Serene-Decision	$9.45K
Scoofy-Bubik	$9.44K
Go3ami2g	$8.39K
Canaldi	$7.51K
Upset-Instruction	$7.45K
Deabrest	$6.09K
Mellow-Cod	$6.05K
usernameneveraccepted	$5.1K
Sylvester.the.Cat	$4.73K
Redlu	$4.59K