Analytics
Yes is at 3.8%, down 46 points from 50% when the market opened on 25 Jul 2025.
Across the 416 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (42 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 25 Jul 2025 and the lowest 3.5% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.6%; a month before, 4.5%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 18.5% on 26 Jul 2025.
It is one of 2 markets under “Erdoğan out by...?”.
$34.56 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $650.46K since listing. The order book holds $62.64K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.2K bought Yes and $8.87K bought No; the largest was a $5.7K sell of No at 95.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Eyes111 with 39.3K shares; the largest No position is momom with 27K. Ten wallets hold 54.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 1:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 416 points, 25 Jul 2025 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | 50.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 3.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Eyes111 | Yes | 39.31K |
| Far-Flung-Law | Yes | 28.34K |
| momom | No | 27.03K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/erdoan-out-before-2027
| alihanyer |
| No |
| 19.5K |
| wer23567 | Yes | 18.39K |
| bnetopt | Yes | 15K |
| Serene-Decision | No | 10K |
| Scoofy-Bubik | No | 9.99K |
| Loud-Dollop | Yes | 9.8K |
| whatifiamright | Yes | 9.69K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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