Analytics
Yes is at 20.5%, down 30 points from 50% when the market opened on 3 Oct 2026.
Across the 19 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 29.5% on 6 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Erdoğan out by...?”.
$234.46 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $958.71, with a 17.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is alihanyer with 82 shares; the largest No position is theitaliangoats with 156.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 6:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 3 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 30.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| theitaliangoats | No | 156.41 |
| alihanyer | Yes | 82.4 |
| wer23567 | Yes | 42.5 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/erdoan-out-before-2027
| oferbe |
| Yes |
| 25 |
| AJSV | Yes | 7.06 |
| gbnumerics | No | 5.56 |
| Winner78 | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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