Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

Name: Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

cryptoActive

Closes Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Yes

42.5%

57.5%

Yes costs 42.5¢No costs 57.5¢

24h Volume

$195

Total volume

$476.6K

Liquidity

$16.0K

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Open positions

The positions Polymarket reports for this market, largest first.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
notssf3	No	17.39K	69.1%	$12.02K
imakebigbets	No	7.11K	54.4%	$3.87K
PandL	Yes	4.77K	29.6%	$1.41K
Zptml	Yes	3.23K	57.5%	$1.86K
Musk5	No	3.04K	74.4%	$2.24K	Aug 26, 7:40 PM UTC
LaPulgaAtomica	Yes	1.89K	32.5%	$593.04	Oct 18, 9:57 PM UTC
Single-Challenge	No	1.77K	81.7%	$1.44K	Sep 8, 11:53 PM UTC
io3	Yes	1.76K	56.9%	$1K
defidegen42069	Yes	1.73K	39.6%	$684.3
Grimy-Expose	Yes	1.03K	37.0%	$380.5
kevtp	No	1K	64.1%	$641.27
PancraceRoyer	Yes	1K	32.5%	$325
Every-Raven	Yes	999.99	55.0%	$550
voyader	Yes	917.41	40.0%	$351.92
A1one	Yes	800	36.0%	$288
MPIL	Yes	800	49.0%	$392
MattPMP	Yes	800	41.0%	$328
TPAA	Yes	800	25.1%	$200
Prickly-Eyrie	Yes	785.03	46.8%	$361.64	Oct 8, 5:34 PM UTC
ooops	Yes	699.99	51.3%	$359.49
PrimePenguin	Yes	687.37	22.6%	$150.68	Aug 21, 11:01 AM UTC
upasna	No	670.2	74.8%	$501.21	Sep 3, 6:18 AM UTC
zommarb	No	610	77.4%	$464.17
EscapeVelocity	Yes	600	27.0%	$162
LaJeunesse	No	588.86	69.7%	$410.41
pako	Yes	560.78	36.4%	$204.13
eNakeVets	Yes	529.35	43.0%	$227.62	Sep 10, 8:26 PM UTC
Erka-RoadTo1M	No	522.76	41.2%	$215.4
MaxCarry	Yes	500	43.0%	$215
Gl4d	Yes	499.55	23.2%	$115.89
kukak0la	Yes	448.81	45.2%	$195	Oct 20, 5:45 PM UTC
TheCornflakemerchant	Yes	416.67	37.6%	$150
DDouble	No	413.28	60.7%	$250.66
jul007	Yes	410	58.0%	$237.8
Melqui	Yes	400	23.0%	$92
fridaysbtc	Yes	398.97	53.4%	$213.22
fsdaklfasdjkladsjlkasd	Yes	376.9	39.0%	$146.36
PutsOnPeace	Yes	362.98	37.4%	$135.58
Aleksei-Ivanovich	No	357.67	78.6%	$278.55
DankeThanks	Yes	333.49	60.0%	$200
AlexZ7	No	325.01	62.0%	$201.5
GenaTheBondKilIer	No	305.99	52.1%	$156.57	Oct 8, 5:13 PM UTC
stragsdfasegbaes	No	302.02	78.4%	$233.03
ResolvedMarkets	Yes	300	30.4%	$87
cloudoe	Yes	299.98	28.3%	$85
Vibrant-Interferometer	Yes	295.83	33.8%	$100
jin-mori	Yes	280	43.1%	$120.6
PACIFIST	No	279.41	50.3%	$140.67
BelleVegas	Yes	274.25	39.3%	$107.77
bananabreakfast	Yes	273.05	42.7%	$115.97	Oct 2, 3:13 PM UTC
chickengambler	Yes	270.74	36.9%	$100
BTCisMYlove	Yes	268.42	38.9%	$100
DemonPain	Yes	266.98	55.8%	$149
ilosemymoney	Yes	266.22	37.6%	$100
Notagolfer	Yes	232.26	34.4%	$80
MaximusGluteusDumpTruckus	No	226	80.4%	$179.04
bluescluez	No	218.63	45.7%	$100
oliman2	No	186.31	62.5%	$113.25	Sep 26, 3:40 PM UTC
Te0n2	Yes	180	25.7%	$46.33
Emerald Orbit 137C	Yes	178.57	28.0%	$50
Unsung-Principle	Yes	176.41	56.7%	$100
blairhaase	No	172.97	78.2%	$133.19
HappyPommes	Yes	172.41	30.4%	$50
neurosplice	Yes	156.25	32.0%	$50
Happygamer	No	150	73.4%	$108.78
Elias.Thornwell	No	145.68	58.0%	$84.26
cc416	Yes	140	23.0%	$32.2
macrosteaks	Yes	138.04	51.9%	$69.22	Oct 8, 5:35 PM UTC
guesswhatwhat	Yes	137.3	36.4%	$50
neutralwave23	Yes	132.46	33.5%	$44.2
Vi1son	Yes	123.24	38.0%	$46.83
moon-k58-lad	Yes	122.94	27.9%	$34.35
Pepetigo	Yes	122.39	28.6%	$35
Glaring-Mapping	Yes	120	35.0%	$42
16girlfuxk1litteboy	Yes	119.59	38.6%	$44.25
Beneficial-Development	Yes	112.59	40.0%	$45.04
abze	No	112.5	73.4%	$81
snakejacob	Yes	111.36	44.0%	$49
Lunar Kestrel 15B7	No	110.19	74.3%	$81.75
Rulles	Yes	104.79	49.5%	$50	Sep 27, 7:38 PM UTC
LaPulgaAtomica	No	101	66.1%	$65.25	Oct 8, 6:30 PM UTC
AMATEUR	Yes	100	28.0%	$28
ZAAR	Yes	100	21.0%	$21
Mithrandir.	Yes	100	27.0%	$27
mick888	No	99.99	42.0%	$41.99
RememberAmalek	No	99.98	58.0%	$57.99
the5season	Yes	99.96	29.8%	$28.8
th997	Yes	96.61	35.1%	$33.95
lissartter	Yes	93.43	35.0%	$32.7
avenger	No	91.34	40.0%	$36.54
cowboyface	Yes	89.98	40.0%	$35.99
alpheclabs	Yes	87	16.0%	$13.92
mongablob	Yes	84.75	59.0%	$50
alienkukuda	Yes	82.87	30.6%	$25.08	Aug 29, 1:53 PM UTC
Needy-Detainment	Yes	80.65	62.0%	$50
ighalo	Yes	74.85	39.8%	$29.8
webb5008	No	73.53	75.1%	$55
HealthyTch	Yes	71.16	31.8%	$22.6
fgta00	Yes	69.92	28.6%	$20
maora	Yes	69.9	44.6%	$30	Sep 21, 3:34 PM UTC
BBLHunter	Yes	67.8	59.0%	$40
ilmari99	No	67	75.1%	$49.58
ASteroide	Yes	65	30.8%	$20
ThisTime4Real	Yes	63.54	48.9%	$30	Sep 23, 9:00 AM UTC
Idle-Anthropology	Yes	62.42	32.0%	$20
Raskell	No	61.87	75.0%	$45.55	Aug 24, 8:33 AM UTC
Olegarh	No	61	71.0%	$43.31
fgdfgh45	No	60	63.0%	$37.8
fyrj	No	60	63.0%	$37.8
Nutritious-Speaker	Yes	60	28.1%	$16.33	Aug 21, 4:25 PM UTC
hightech8	Yes	60	39.3%	$23.6
captain-levi	Yes	60	34.0%	$20.4
kstc17a	No	55.84	53.0%	$29.6
slavicrunes	Yes	54.05	37.0%	$20
gctrader	No	54	84.9%	$45.36
bitzee	Yes	50.88	53.1%	$27.01
fhdfd	No	50	66.0%	$33
vghf45	No	50	65.0%	$32.5
linfdgd56	No	50	66.0%	$33
leetbetter	No	50	71.0%	$35.5
Maximus374	Yes	50	53.0%	$26.5
AlexLiu	Yes	50	33.0%	$16.5
Leafy-Infancy	Yes	50	21.1%	$10
hfgh26	No	49.99	66.0%	$33
Nobi-Nobita	No	45.86	51.4%	$23.59
igor-ivanov	Yes	45.26	58.0%	$26.25
pluckyme	Yes	45.08	30.0%	$13.24
igfezj	No	45	43.4%	$19.55
Trader120	Yes	43.34	29.9%	$12.67
helloitsme57	Yes	43.07	30.7%	$12.61
GenaCyberpunk	No	40.55	63.9%	$25.9
Artmiraks	No	40.37	75.6%	$30
protarus	Yes	40.01	22.0%	$8.8
TKGN	Yes	40	25.0%	$10
PBH	Yes	40	25.3%	$10
l492	No	39.11	67.6%	$26.43
Lunar Horizon 1407	Yes	38.12	26.2%	$9.51
kstc19	No	37.07	83.0%	$30.77
Emerald Scout CBD1	Yes	36.71	44.4%	$16.3
Vigorous-Alphabet	Yes	35.71	28.0%	$10
jmp123	Yes	35.09	57.0%	$20
Silver Scout F27E	Yes	35.04	28.0%	$9.81
Muko57	Yes	35	60.0%	$21
Ordinary-Group	Yes	33.82	31.0%	$10	Sep 6, 10:20 AM UTC
flamboyantDeniro	Yes	33.33	60.0%	$20
WatchTheTape	Yes	33.27	27.0%	$8.55
yachina	Yes	32.89	35.9%	$11.82
belhume	No	32.47	78.2%	$25
Livid-Snow	No	32.46	46.2%	$15
Yuki-uu	Yes	32.03	32.7%	$10
generalmilky	No	32	56.0%	$17.92
Big-Hearted-Shaker	No	30.84	74.0%	$22.82
trainingwheels	Yes	30.45	32.8%	$10
garbagefriends	Yes	30.43	31.0%	$9.44	Oct 3, 4:52 PM UTC
Crimson Comet A7B5	Yes	30.3	33.0%	$10
unsleepy0	No	30	41.0%	$12.3
Defizz	No	30	71.0%	$21.3
ArbitrageFund	Yes	30	36.0%	$10.8
rengisgood	Yes	30	40.0%	$12
Emerald Orbit 46AF	Yes	30	40.0%	$12
Wikids	Yes	29.41	35.6%	$10
As7a	Yes	28.57	35.0%	$10
Amber Atlas 95E4	Yes	28.33	37.2%	$10	Sep 15, 2:58 PM UTC
Moutou	No	26.67	76.3%	$20
shinramyvn	No	26.49	74.0%	$19.6
rk2503	Yes	26.32	38.0%	$10
wmurillo.eth	Yes	25.55	30.1%	$7.33	Sep 10, 5:23 PM UTC
Ruddy-Ceremony	No	25.42	60.7%	$15	Oct 9, 11:04 AM UTC
Jade Horizon 8A1F	Yes	25.38	31.0%	$7.87
TheGoldenShotg4nSK	Yes	25	40.0%	$10
StevenTsui	Yes	25	41.0%	$10.25
hashashi	Yes	24.59	61.0%	$15
Gardsy	Yes	23.29	30.0%	$7
Jittery-Timeline	No	23.26	43.0%	$10
Golden Comet 0067	Yes	23.26	43.0%	$10
gmhodler	Yes	23	41.0%	$9.43
Btckev	Yes	22.73	44.0%	$10
Jade Atlas 0EAA	Yes	21.46	28.0%	$6.01
AJSV	No	21.42	56.0%	$12	Sep 7, 3:19 AM UTC
THEbookmaker	Yes	21.22	54.0%	$11.46
robert-mukhametov	No	20.94	78.0%	$16.34
olivas	Yes	20	39.0%	$7.8
Jesetrading	Yes	20	45.0%	$9
W.W.C.D.	Yes	18.94	52.8%	$10
Newone	Yes	18.52	54.0%	$10
kisforchaos	Yes	18.33	60.0%	$11
1uKing	Yes	18.33	60.0%	$11
wolfmoon	Yes	17.86	29.4%	$5
move-213	Yes	17.74	40.5%	$7.19
Giratrader	Yes	17.54	57.0%	$10
Cold-Battleship	Yes	17.54	57.0%	$10
bertilio	Yes	17.24	58.0%	$10
y0x	Yes	17.24	29.0%	$5
Ruddy-Theism	Yes	17.24	58.0%	$10
Poised-Relaxation	Yes	17.15	24.6%	$4
cryptodogo	Yes	16.95	59.0%	$10
yueyueweb3	Yes	16.67	60.0%	$10
Cobalt Horizon 992B	Yes	16.54	26.1%	$4.28	Oct 3, 4:52 PM UTC
nilestrades	Yes	16.17	25.9%	$4.17
Yumtion	Yes	16	26.3%	$4
luccacantarini	No	15.57	74.0%	$11.52
polymark	Yes	15.38	27.3%	$4
test.saveliyb.test	No	15	72.4%	$10.65
Royal Raven 1AF7	Yes	14.29	56.0%	$8
condiut99	No	13.89	72.0%	$10
blackbelt	Yes	13.89	37.6%	$5
Extraneous-Night	Yes	13.56	59.0%	$8
Luca.acuL.	Yes	13.56	59.0%	$8
Master1998	No	13.21	84.2%	$11
Crimson Horizon 4D4B	Yes	12.79	42.0%	$5.37
Trader120	No	12.57	81.6%	$10.15
Accalia	No	12.5	81.1%	$10
NellyDora	Yes	12.39	31.5%	$3.9	Oct 3, 4:52 PM UTC
pepe112	Yes	12.07	58.0%	$7
manochartino	Yes	11.69	43.0%	$5.02
aramena	Yes	11.63	43.0%	$5
Salzpack	Yes	11.53	27.4%	$3
ChachoCL	Yes	11.36	44.0%	$5
Onswaggie	No	11.18	73.0%	$8
Bunter.Hiden	No	10.4	64.6%	$6.55	Oct 17, 8:32 PM UTC
Lovable-Pledge	Yes	10.34	30.4%	$3	Aug 23, 10:09 PM UTC
coolwct	Yes	10.01	53.0%	$5.31
Duplo4000	No	10.01	82.0%	$8.2
lll918dd	No	10	58.0%	$5.8
ddd1d43	Yes	10	36.0%	$3.6
Basquo	Yes	10	39.5%	$3.95
asdkjlh	Yes	10	40.0%	$4
Aotm	Yes	10	55.0%	$5.5
ilove1fname	Yes	9.99	31.0%	$3.1
dongdo	No	9.89	58.0%	$5.74
GldFir	Yes	9.76	41.0%	$4
Meonprediction	Yes	8.62	58.0%	$5
Crimson Vector 17D3	Yes	8.62	58.0%	$5
Digital-Jalapeño	Yes	8.62	58.0%	$5
Surfplayer	Yes	8.5	35.3%	$3
memini	Yes	8.47	59.0%	$5
fi5h	Yes	8.14	31.0%	$2.46
danliuli	No	7.85	63.7%	$5
eacnft	Yes	6.98	43.0%	$3
ng6000	Yes	6.96	35.3%	$2.35
alrehadu	Yes	6.95	36.0%	$2.5
Dead-Kettledrum	No	6.85	73.0%	$5
GuillaumeJwk	No	6.82	44.0%	$3
Keen Lynx 59DA	Yes	6.77	56.0%	$3.79
Lape7z	No	6.76	74.0%	$5
crayven	No	6.67	60.0%	$4
Swift Maven 7C4E	Yes	6.67	60.0%	$4
liuruijin	Yes	6.65	26.0%	$1.73
gamayoun	No	6.58	77.3%	$5
Fitting-Tutu	Yes	6.55	58.0%	$3.8
Hadathegr8	Yes	6.25	32.0%	$2
Emerald Scout 2F86	Yes	6.07	28.4%	$1.64
squirrel12345	Yes	6	19.0%	$1.08
xbxcd	Yes	6	27.3%	$1.56
Yearly-Conviction	Yes	5.88	34.0%	$2
Emerald Vector 73FB	No	5.77	52.0%	$3
WPGCR506	Yes	5.41	37.0%	$2
memecopy	No	5.23	43.0%	$2.25
Neto11	No	5.17	58.0%	$3
kaka100	Yes	5.17	58.0%	$3
Solar Ledger 05AA	Yes	5.1	49.7%	$2.45	Oct 8, 5:34 PM UTC
Accidutzul	Yes	5.01	47.9%	$2.4	Sep 10, 10:25 AM UTC
Wan-Cameo-Asymmetry	No	5	72.0%	$3.6
Astraeight	No	5	60.0%	$3
lizzytrader	No	5	66.0%	$3.3
jjeeesusssus	No	5	67.0%	$3.35
Misty Orbit 094A	Yes	5	26.0%	$1.3
Good-Birdwatcher	Yes	5	45.0%	$2.25
frank19571	Yes	5	28.0%	$1.4
gonna-cook	Yes	4.99	51.0%	$2.55
00000000000000x9	No	4.81	57.6%	$2.69	Oct 16, 8:08 PM UTC
joikrrbot	Yes	4.8	26.3%	$1.2
winexecutescale	No	4.39	53.0%	$2.33
Curly-Bamboo	No	4.35	46.0%	$2
ddadsf	No	4.17	44.0%	$1.83
bravechimp	Yes	4	50.0%	$2
Bold Maven D558	Yes	4	26.4%	$1	Aug 22, 3:15 AM UTC
ANDY-479	No	3.95	77.3%	$3
Emerald Raven BBE4	Yes	3.82	28.0%	$1.07
thepolwinner	No	3.76	39.1%	$1.47
knorek	Yes	3.57	28.0%	$1
reartur	Yes	3.57	28.0%	$1
Misty Vector 59F9	Yes	3.45	28.0%	$0.97
51dgfd	Yes	3.35	25.0%	$0.84
Neon Raven 6A94	Yes	3.33	31.5%	$1
franzferdinand	No	3.33	73.0%	$2.43
Vague-Mansion	Yes	3.13	32.0%	$1
Jade Falcon 894F	Yes	3.13	33.8%	$1	Sep 4, 9:48 AM UTC
umseh	Yes	3.03	33.0%	$1
Canine-Recommendation	Yes	3	30.0%	$0.9
miguezar51	Yes	2.98	57.0%	$1.7
BTCGODZE	Yes	2.86	35.0%	$1
Indigo Raven E693	Yes	2.78	37.6%	$1
Rapid Voyager F13B	Yes	2.78	37.6%	$1
Zihuatanello	Yes	2.78	36.0%	$1
Electric-Usual	Yes	2.78	37.6%	$1
hitcreed	Yes	2.78	36.0%	$1
Terrific-Lover	Yes	2.7	37.0%	$1
Jankob	Yes	2.7	37.0%	$1
Jade Harbor 4C94	No	2.63	77.3%	$2	Sep 2, 3:10 PM UTC
Berdiberb	Yes	2.61	38.3%	$1
S12qsd	Yes	2.57	56.0%	$1.44
EricBA	No	2.5	40.0%	$1
TerranSupremacy	Yes	2.4	24.8%	$0.59
Generous-Misreading	No	2.38	42.0%	$1
Lovely-Parent	No	2.38	42.0%	$1
30evo	Yes	2.33	43.0%	$1
PrognosticRhino	Yes	2.33	43.0%	$1
Lunar Kestrel 80EF	No	2.27	44.0%	$1
weerswap	No	2.27	44.0%	$1
siddharthjain	Yes	2.27	45.7%	$1	Oct 17, 5:43 AM UTC
collie	No	2.15	53.0%	$1.14	Sep 22, 6:30 AM UTC
probthinker1	Yes	2.15	48.7%	$1.01	Sep 24, 1:03 AM UTC
Skwaterbrook	No	2.13	47.0%	$1
gwom	No	2.07	43.0%	$0.89
realmgow	No	2	54.6%	$1.06	Oct 5, 2:17 AM UTC
gntTestWallet	No	2	55.7%	$1.08	Sep 23, 11:40 PM UTC
Cagey898	No	2	50.0%	$1
Agitator	No	2	50.0%	$1
Lavincey	Yes	2	20.0%	$0.4
shavedmonkey	No	1.96	51.0%	$1
Husky-Hostel	Yes	1.85	54.0%	$1
Chillstarr	No	1.76	62.0%	$1.09
BenvenutiBR	Yes	1.75	57.0%	$1
Trelquix	Yes	1.72	58.0%	$1
ADADAD-909	Yes	1.72	58.0%	$1
Emerald Vector E710	Yes	1.72	58.0%	$1
dongming20260102	Yes	1.72	58.0%	$1
orange.fognumb	Yes	1.72	58.0%	$1
fa2stbettor	Yes	1.72	58.0%	$1
Tetianawww	Yes	1.72	58.0%	$1
moshx	Yes	1.7	56.0%	$0.95
Villainous-Emergent	No	1.69	60.7%	$1	Oct 9, 3:31 PM UTC
be1nnybet	Yes	1.69	59.0%	$1
MadMeerkat	Yes	1.69	59.0%	$1
warrior2	Yes	1.67	21.0%	$0.35
Cloudy-Devil	No	1.67	60.0%	$1
randomactions	Yes	1.67	60.0%	$1
Chtarg	Yes	1.67	60.0%	$1
16r0ob	Yes	1.63	21.6%	$0.35
Amber Pioneer 94AC	No	1.61	62.0%	$1
rchumd	No	1.61	62.0%	$1
mvmca1611	No	1.49	67.0%	$1
gordonsaito	No	1.45	69.0%	$1
onebitcoin	No	1.43	70.0%	$1
dsoisoij	Yes	1.37	27.0%	$0.37
tobytso	No	1.35	74.0%	$1
Iprs89	No	1.32	77.2%	$1
miazagsc	Yes	1.27	25.6%	$0.31
stacia	No	1.12	83.0%	$0.93
elo180	No	1.1	42.0%	$0.46
Slow-Exhibit	No	1	71.0%	$0.71
gonnakilmyslf	Yes	0.99	19.6%	$0.19
Lavincey	No	0.54	74.0%	$0.4
Solar Comet D66C	Yes	0.5	42.0%	$0.21
banestow	No	0.45	70.5%	$0.31	Sep 22, 1:57 PM UTC
iliabouchouev	No	0.42	72.0%	$0.3
strikefreedom	Yes	0.42	31.0%	$0.13
peepeepooppoop	Yes	0.39	27.0%	$0.11
G9vQK5Gcyx	Yes	0.37	33.5%	$0.12	Sep 15, 9:40 PM UTC
sadff	Yes	0.28	28.0%	$0.08
PPMT	No	0.27	71.0%	$0.19
banestow	Yes	0.24	22.1%	$0.05	Sep 13, 11:50 AM UTC
77sfds	No	0.22	70.9%	$0.16
TraderProMax	Yes	0.2	22.0%	$0.04
vespox	No	0.18	53.7%	$0.09	Oct 8, 4:09 PM UTC
no1biao	Yes	0.13	28.0%	$0.04

367 of 367 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
notssf3	$10K
imakebigbets	$4.09K
PandL	$2.03K

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