What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 9 Sep 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

186 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 10, 9:14 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Market referencebab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-august-31Updated 24d ago

politicsResolved

No · settled Sep 9, 2026 UTCpoliticshouthi

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.6M

Resolved

Settled

Sep 9, 2026 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

3m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

24d ago

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

186

Wallets

186

Top 10 share

79%

Yes / No shares

223.7K / 165.86

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

330

Loaded notional

$179.68K

No sell at 99.8%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Sep 9, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-10 pts

Range

0.1% - 21.5%

Jul 14, 12:00 AM UTC to Sep 9, 12:00 AM UTC

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Solid-Airfare	Yes	63.87K	13.7%	$83.04K
yuhyuhyuhy352352	Yes	62.15K	5.1%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 9 Sep 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

Solid-Airfare

Yes

63.87K

13.7%

$83.04K

yuhyuhyuhy352352

Yes

62.15K

5.1%

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