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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | No | 420 | $0.430 | $199.5 | +$18.9 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.008 | $1.6 | 2d ago |
|
| Yes |
| 783.56 |
| $0.141 |
| $97.55 |
| -$12.66 |
 Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | No | 569.98 | $0.296 | $88.35 | -$80.15 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | No | 765.53 | $0.266 | $76.55 | -$126.95 |
 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 400 | $0.145 | $58 | $0 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | No | 1.07K | $0.181 | $48.18 | -$145.84 |
 Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 90 | $0.490 | $42.75 | -$1.35 |
 Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 99.99 | $0.378 | $37.05 | -$0.75 |
 Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | No | 60 | $0.500 | $36.9 | +$6.9 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 200 | $0.151 | $33.2 | +$3 |
 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30? | Yes | 111.18 | $0.244 | $28.91 | +$1.78 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 440 | $0.085 | $28.6 | -$8.6 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 1.1K | $0.042 | $26.4 | -$20.3 |
 No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 130 | $0.207 | $25.81 | -$1.06 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 460 | $0.089 | $25.3 | -$15.5 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1.06K | $0.046 | $21.77 | -$27.06 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 200 | $0.025 | $21.7 | +$16.7 |
 Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 118.6 | $0.110 | $19.57 | +$6.52 |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 399.99 | $0.080 | $18 | -$14 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30? | Yes | 3.48K | $0.038 | $17.42 | -$113.63 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 209.02 | $0.133 | $15.68 | -$12.08 |
 Will Trump deport less than 200k people? | Yes | 783.18 | $0.139 | $14.88 | -$94.02 |
 Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 50 | $0.330 | $13.5 | -$3 |
 Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? | Yes | 203.71 | $0.120 | $13.24 | -$11.2 |
 Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | Yes | 100 | $0.310 | $11 | -$20 |
| buy |
| 200 |
| $0.012 |
| $2.4 |
| 2d ago |
 Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?No | buy | 39.57 | $0.180 | $7.12 | 2d ago |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?No | buy | 150 | $0.110 | $16.5 | 5d ago |
 Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No | buy | 5 | $0.440 | $2.2 | 18d ago |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.169 | $13.52 | 24d ago |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?Yes | buy | 26 | $0.352 | $9.15 | 27d ago |
 Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?Yes | buy | 241.33 | $0.140 | $33.86 | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.580 | $2.9 | Aug 2, 2026 |
 Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 510m and 530m by August 31?Yes | sell | 137.16 | $0.081 | $11.13 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?No | buy | 84 | $0.290 | $24.34 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?No | buy | 622.72 | $0.270 | $168.13 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?Yes | sell | 52.14 | $0.823 | $42.89 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 300m and 350m by August 31?Yes | sell | 615.54 | $0.003 | $1.9 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?No | sell | 60 | $0.007 | $0.44 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 250m and 300m by August 31?Yes | sell | 89.96 | $0.001 | $0.09 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?No | buy | 14.8 | $0.130 | $1.92 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes | sell | 1.43K | $0.004 | $5.76 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?Yes | sell | 11.11 | $0.006 | $0.07 | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Yes | buy | 203.71 | $0.120 | $24.45 | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?Yes | buy | 399.65 | $0.006 | $2.4 | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 115m?No | buy | 304 | $0.400 | $121.6 | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes | buy | 128.72 | $0.005 | $0.64 | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.039 | $7.8 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?No | buy | 102 | $0.770 | $78.54 | Jul 7, 2026 |
 Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 1.04K | $0.001 | $1.04 | Jul 5, 2026 |
| Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 1.6K | $0.021 | $33.56 | Jul 3, 2026 |
 Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.014 | $7 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?Yes | sell | 159.26 | $0.240 | $38.26 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?No | buy | 10 | $0.070 | $0.7 | Jul 2, 2026 |
 Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?Yes | buy | 101.95 | $0.360 | $36.7 | Jun 29, 2026 |
 Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 200 | $0.070 | $14 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?Yes | buy | 281.19 | $0.033 | $9.36 | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5Over | buy | 102.27 | $0.260 | $26.59 | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes | buy | 505.14 | $0.033 | $16.67 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?No | buy | 5.91 | $0.240 | $1.42 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?No | buy | 102.61 | $0.150 | $15.39 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to ScoreNo | buy | 535.26 | $0.830 | $444.27 | Jun 19, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 180.68 | $0.993 | $179.42 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Starmer out by February 28, 2026?No | sell | 60 | $0.956 | $57.34 | Feb 13, 2026 |
 Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?No | sell | 100 | $0.999 | $99.9 | Feb 8, 2026 |
 Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Yes | buy | 32.92 | $0.320 | $10.53 | Feb 7, 2026 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.400 | $8 | Feb 5, 2026 |
 Government shutdown on Saturday?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.530 | $15.9 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.035 | $7 | Jan 31, 2026 |
 Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.150 | $15 | Jan 29, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.034 | $6.8 | Jan 25, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 69.28 | $0.021 | $1.45 | Jan 24, 2026 |
 Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.257 | $51.4 | Jan 24, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 2.52 | $0.068 | $0.17 | Jan 24, 2026 |