Analytics
Yes is at 13%, down 13 points from 26% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2025.
Across the 361 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2025 to 21 Oct 2026 (33 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.5% on 30 Oct 2025 and the lowest 1.8% on 16 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.7%; a month before, 7.4%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 2.6% on 15 Jul 2026.
Kylian Mbappé ranks second of the 31 outcomes in “Ballon d'Or Winner 2026”. Harry Kane leads at 75.4%; Lamine Yamal is at 10.3%.
$321.45K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.75M since listing. The order book holds $165.51K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is surfandturf with 518K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.21M. Ten wallets hold 60.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 27 Oct 2026, 3 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 361 points, 23 Sep 2025 – 21 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2025 | 26.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.21M |
| surfandturf | Yes | 517.96K |
| 0F62 | No | 173K |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026
19 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| Known-Icing |
| Yes |
| 129.45K |
| AZwater | No | 102.1K |
| DonaldinhoTrumpito | No | 100K |
| thoodr | No | 77.4K |
| boyau | Yes | 75.63K |
| aventadorsvr | Yes | 63.94K |
| Scornful-Trick | Yes | 52.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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