Analytics
Yes is at 0.9%, down 4.5 points from 5.5% when the market opened on 18 Jun 2026.
Across the 127 daily closes on record from 18 Jun 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 18 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.9% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.6%; a month before, 5%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 7.8% on 20 Jul 2026.
Lionel Messi ranks fourth of the 31 outcomes in “Ballon d'Or Winner 2026”. Harry Kane leads at 71%; Kylian Mbappé is at 18.7%.
$237.68K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.79M since listing. The order book holds $311.74K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $393.23 bought Yes and $49.05K bought No; the largest was a $8.29K buy of No at 98.8¢.
The largest Yes position is surfandturf with 525K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.31M. Ten wallets hold 69.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 27 Oct 2026, 3 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 6:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 127 points, 18 Jun 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2026 | 5.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 0.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.31M |
| surfandturf | Yes | 525K |
| aimforthebushes | Yes | 327.08K |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026
19 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| Known-Icing | Yes | 295.9K |
| borja13 | Yes | 167.66K |
| schizohedgehog | No | 102.99K |
| Gfrancog | Yes | 43.45K |
| thoodr | No | 40.53K |
| bearbees2 | No | 39.31K |
| norrisfan | Yes | 36.53K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
