Analytics
Yes is at 18.3%, down 27 points from 45% when the market opened on 19 May 2026.
Across the 160 daily closes on record from 19 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.5% on 21 May 2026 and the lowest 17.6% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 24.7%; a month before, 91.9%. Its largest one-day move was 46 points down, to 34.3% on 2 Oct 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?”.
$731.77 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $81.04K since listing. The order book holds $2.11K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.88K bought Yes and $6.94K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Flamboyant-Warming with 600 shares; the largest No position is sobaka.yebaka with 902. Ten wallets hold 50.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 160 points, 19 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 May 2026 | 45.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 18.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sobaka.yebaka | No | 902 |
| pizdi.bolyu | No | 725.99 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | No | 662 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-arena-debut
| dedidanc |
| No |
| 621.18 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 599.87 |
| SlayerH | Yes | 403.88 |
| Somber-Ice | No | 397.46 |
| Dav1d10 | Yes | 321.75 |
| balthazar | Yes | 293.49 |
| cornishon2 | No | 288.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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