Analytics
Trading ended on 29 Oct 2026 with Yes at 18.5%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 159 daily closes on record from 19 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 79.5% on 29 Sep 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 14 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 24.5%; a month before, 72.5%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 43% on 2 Oct 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?”.
$66.89K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is MineYours with 3.5K shares; the largest No position is cat6767 with 3.3K. Ten wallets hold 77.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 30, 11:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 159 points, 19 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 May 2026 | 51.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-arena-debut
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 724.25 |
| Somber-Ice | No | 509.29 |
| tja | No | 505.75 |
| troim | Yes | 500 |
| shiifoo | Yes | 465 |
| Xeny | Yes | 387 |
| JokerTheClown | No | 362.93 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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