Analytics
Yes is at 22%, down 23 points from 45% when the market opened on 3 Apr 2026.
Across the 205 daily closes on record from 3 Apr 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 89% on 6 Aug 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 19 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 35%; a month before, 44.5%. Its largest one-day move was 51 points up, to 82.5% on 17 Jul 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?”.
$1.12K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $66.72K since listing. The order book holds $2.72K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Investnow with 2.4K shares; the largest No position is nelsonc19 with 2.6K. Ten wallets hold 66.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 205 points, 3 Apr 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | 45.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 22.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-ai-model-reach-math-arena-score-by-december-31
| L1quid |
| No |
| 516 |
| lamyk | No | 465 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 413.39 |
| i.love.Frieren | Yes | 393.02 |
| molodoyy | No | 383.89 |
| Rr55 | No | 360.01 |
| Poivre | No | 297.7 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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