What is the “Iran coup attempt by December 31?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Iran coup attempt by December 31? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Iran coup attempt by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 9.5¢ and No at 90.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 9.5% for Yes and 90.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($1.1) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($18.16K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 113 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 88.7% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 25, 1:54 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Iran coup attempt by December 31? Polymarket Odds

Market referenceiran-coup-attempt-by-december-31Updated just now

politicsActive

Closes Jan 1, 2027 UTCgeopoliticsiranian-leadership-regime

Yes

9.5%

90.5%

Buy Yes 9.5¢Buy No 90.5¢

24h Volume

Liquidity

$18.2K

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Yes price

9.5¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

9.5%

90.5%

24h volume

$1.1

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 9.5¢

Open in terminal$1.1 24h vol

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

6m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

1.0%

Observed

just now

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

9.5%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

113

Wallets

113

Top 10 share

89%

Yes / No shares

51.08K / 51.08K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

135

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
anoin123	No	42.72K	88.1%	$44.32K	Sep 18, 3:19 AM UTC
Warren-Buffett	Yes	20K	13.1%	$20.23K

Iran coup attempt by...?

June 30Iran coup attempt by June 30?closed

Topic room

Every related market on one live board

Iran–Israel oddsWhat are the odds of war between Israel and Iran?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Iran coup attempt by December 31?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Iran coup attempt by December 31? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Iran coup attempt by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 9.5¢ and No at 90.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 9.5% for Yes and 90.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($1.1) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($18.16K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

anoin123

42.72K

88.1%

$44.32K

Sep 18, 3:19 AM UTC

Warren-Buffett

Yes

20K

13.1%

$20.23K

Trader	Current holding value
anoin123	$38.66K
Warren-Buffett	$1.9K
CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile	$1.81K
Woeful-Wrinkle-Approach	$1.81K
HuskyRRRRR	$1.26K
Croc78	$1.07K
Jep-G	$452.5
Pulser	$416.46
Hakei.	$321.32
Slowroasted	$299.78
TronOG	$271.5
baybug	$225.26