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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 127.61 | $0.798 | $109.1 | +$7.28 |
 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 5.51 | $0.890 | $4.9 | 10m ago |
 |
| No |
| 84.5 |
| $0.704 |
| $75.63 |
| +$16.14 |
 Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 76.84 | $0.911 | $74.11 | +$4.12 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 76.35 | $0.780 | $71.38 | +$11.83 |
 Trump goes to space in 2026? | No | 72.14 | $0.970 | $70.67 | +$0.66 |
 Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 70.71 | $0.990 | $70 | +$0 |
 Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | No | 74.57 | $0.805 | $68.6 | +$8.59 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 77.81 | $0.771 | $68.08 | +$8.08 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | No | 91.05 | $0.419 | $65.56 | +$27.44 |
 Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026? | No | 65.9 | $0.897 | $62.93 | +$3.84 |
 Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 62.79 | $0.955 | $61.76 | +$1.76 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? | No | 61.11 | $0.982 | $61.08 | +$1.08 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 71.51 | $0.744 | $59.46 | +$6.25 |
 Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | Yes | 63.73 | $0.800 | $58.95 | +$7.97 |
 Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 65.56 | $0.914 | $58.45 | -$1.51 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 64.77 | $0.821 | $56.03 | +$2.87 |
 Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 58.04 | $0.913 | $55.2 | +$2.2 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | No | 54.66 | $0.946 | $54.2 | +$2.5 |
 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 91.49 | $0.651 | $52.61 | -$6.95 |
 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 65.37 | $0.397 | $51.32 | +$25.38 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | 49.08 | $0.805 | $45.89 | +$6.38 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 47.81 | $0.790 | $39.92 | +$2.15 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | No | 42.08 | $0.943 | $39.64 | -$0.03 |
 Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? | No | 42.83 | $0.860 | $38.33 | +$1.5 |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 305.86 | $0.229 | $38.23 | -$31.77 |
| sell |
| 1.06 |
| $0.280 |
| $0.3 |
| 19m ago |
 LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes | sell | 15.1 | $0.120 | $1.81 | 19m ago |
 LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 4.57 | $0.670 | $3.06 | 23m ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 3.43 | $0.670 | $2.3 | 23m ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 0.7 | $0.310 | $0.22 | 24m ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 18.02 | $0.890 | $16.04 | 24m ago |
 Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 10%-15%?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.249 | $1.25 | 38m ago |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 3.82 | $0.040 | $0.15 | 1h ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 4.01 | $0.520 | $2.09 | 2h ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 1.82 | $0.930 | $1.69 | 2h ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 22.3 | $0.930 | $20.74 | 2h ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 0.62 | $0.930 | $0.58 | 2h ago |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?Yes | sell | 0.97 | $0.620 | $0.6 | 3h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?Yes | sell | 0.97 | $0.600 | $0.58 | 3h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?Yes | sell | 0.36 | $0.720 | $0.26 | 4h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?Yes | sell | 0.18 | $0.720 | $0.13 | 5h ago |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 58.28 | $0.040 | $2.33 | 6h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?Yes | sell | 2 | $0.660 | $1.32 | 6h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?Yes | sell | 0.64 | $0.710 | $0.45 | 7h ago |
 Will LAPTOP launch on Base?No | sell | 33.15 | $0.011 | $0.35 | 7h ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 0.26 | $0.500 | $0.13 | 8h ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 0.95 | $0.500 | $0.48 | 8h ago |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No | sell | 9.03 | $0.140 | $1.26 | 8h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?No | buy | 9.41 | $0.460 | $4.33 | 8h ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 0.38 | $0.500 | $0.19 | 8h ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 1.09 | $0.500 | $0.55 | 8h ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No | sell | 3.25 | $0.140 | $0.46 | 8h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Yes | sell | 53.63 | $0.340 | $18.23 | 12h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Yes | sell | 0.54 | $0.340 | $0.18 | 12h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Yes | sell | 0.54 | $0.340 | $0.18 | 12h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Yes | sell | 0.4 | $0.340 | $0.14 | 12h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Yes | sell | 0.54 | $0.340 | $0.18 | 12h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Yes | sell | 2.47 | $0.340 | $0.84 | 12h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Yes | sell | 37.07 | $0.300 | $11.12 | 14h ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No | sell | 0.85 | $0.130 | $0.11 | 18h ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No | sell | 17.5 | $0.130 | $2.28 | 18h ago |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 4.82 | $0.040 | $0.19 | 19h ago |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 7.21 | $0.040 | $0.29 | 19h ago |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 11.36 | $0.040 | $0.45 | 19h ago |
 Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.100 | $4 | 19h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Yes | sell | 48.55 | $0.630 | $30.59 | 19h ago |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 3.01 | $0.040 | $0.12 | 19h ago |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 12.06 | $0.040 | $0.48 | 19h ago |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Yes | sell | 6.81 | $0.060 | $0.41 | 20h ago |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes | sell | 0.77 | $0.130 | $0.1 | 22h ago |
 LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?No | sell | 31.79 | $0.050 | $1.59 | 1d ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?No | sell | 2.09 | $0.060 | $0.13 | 1d ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?No | sell | 5.4 | $0.060 | $0.32 | 1d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 0.72 | $0.940 | $0.68 | 1d ago |