Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

Name: Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

cultureActive

Closes Mar 2, 2027 UTC

Yes

0.3%

99.8%

Yes costs 0.25¢No costs 99.75¢

24h Volume

$134

Total volume

$533.5K

Liquidity

$57.9K

Closes

Mar 2, 2027 UTC

Open positions

The positions Polymarket reports for this market, largest first.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	161.65K	0.0%	$0
Gennedy	Yes	32.03K	11.6%	$3.72K
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yes	29.87K	8.2%	$2.46K
Swift Maven 1848	Yes	15.75K	2.0%	$312.93	Sep 10, 1:17 AM UTC
px1	Yes	12.53K	2.3%	$292.58
CriptanTDA	Yes	6.49K	0.3%	$16.21	Sep 25, 8:30 AM UTC
imagineall	Yes	6.25K	2.3%	$142.06	Aug 22, 9:57 AM UTC
GrandNegroniSlurpClub	Yes	6.01K	3.8%	$217.43
PCMTest	Yes	5.9K	0.2%	$11.79	Oct 12, 3:28 PM UTC
387411007415611814092217897387	Yes	3.75K	5.3%	$198.51
donthackme	Yes	3.27K	16.7%	$545.09	Oct 13, 5:56 PM UTC
IP1380	Yes	2.66K	1.8%	$48.62
896330449	Yes	2.53K	2.6%	$63
RandomWalker3	Yes	2.23K	2.8%	$60
Jcmiras	Yes	2.19K	2.3%	$48.68	Aug 2, 2:26 PM UTC
MrVatana	Yes	2K	6.5%	$130
Orion96	Yes	1.87K	5.9%	$108
AMAM13	Yes	1.86K	1.8%	$33.07
Jopol	Yes	1.8K	9.0%	$161.32
kgg001	Yes	1.72K	7.9%	$136.18
stiflerlima	Yes	1.54K	6.5%	$100
Miojinho	Yes	1.38K	3.1%	$41.28
Calvin3328	Yes	1.1K	2.3%	$25.3
LornaPredicts	Yes	925.47	0.4%	$3.38
balthazar	Yes	817.42	16.7%	$136.24	Oct 12, 2:31 AM UTC
Elias.Thornwell	No	618.25	98.6%	$609.45	Oct 8, 6:47 AM UTC
Cobalt Signal 32C1	Yes	528.57	0.6%	$3
Godofsunmoon	Yes	500	0.2%	$1	Oct 7, 7:37 AM UTC
VicCap	Yes	491.38	11.6%	$57
AJSV	Yes	439.98	13.5%	$59.35
Adalovelace	Yes	430.57	3.5%	$14.5
Hospitable-Routine	Yes	400	2.6%	$10
spacejam9000	Yes	368.45	10.8%	$40
xiaoaojiang	Yes	365	2.5%	$8.65	Aug 9, 5:51 AM UTC
canis333	Yes	343.74	2.3%	$7.75	Aug 17, 9:43 AM UTC
PontiusPilate	Yes	338.57	16.7%	$56.43
envy666	Yes	333.33	0.3%	$1	Oct 6, 3:25 AM UTC
Brainon	Yes	333.33	0.3%	$1	Oct 6, 8:58 AM UTC
Ivory Scout DCD2	Yes	333.33	0.3%	$1	Oct 13, 1:22 PM UTC
ROOKIE	Yes	328.61	7.8%	$25.55
Shacig	Yes	319.28	6.3%	$20
Razirback	Yes	302.67	4.1%	$12.3
groppone	Yes	300	7.0%	$21
Rem19	Yes	299.99	11.9%	$35.7
whitebunny	Yes	286.28	2.6%	$7.07
Blissful-Finer	Yes	285.28	3.5%	$10
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes	284.79	2.9%	$8.15
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	278.89	0.0%	$0
Fickle-Bladder	Yes	277.01	10.8%	$29.99
Kageyo	Yes	273.79	7.3%	$20
Torstein63	Yes	262.28	4.0%	$10
Live-Synergy	Yes	217.39	2.4%	$5
ScottNguyen2159	No	216.7	92.2%	$199.8
Neon Comet D124	Yes	211.43	3.1%	$6.29
Unwelcome-Pipe	Yes	208.33	2.5%	$5
-Math	Yes	200	2.6%	$5
Ethical-Opposition	Yes	200	2.5%	$4.8
Mealy-Hanger	No	199.99	92.2%	$184.47
cuutytr	Yes	192	2.4%	$4.41
Timely-Suite	Yes	178.91	2.5%	$4.33
suntori	Yes	176.77	4.3%	$7.48
compott	Yes	166	2.5%	$3.98	Sep 1, 12:35 PM UTC
neutralwave23	Yes	160.71	2.9%	$4.5	Sep 3, 1:07 AM UTC
PatientGambler	Yes	155.87	6.7%	$10.34
Jake-9527	Yes	150.38	3.5%	$5
Deafening-Possible	Yes	150	0.1%	$0.15
843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.	Yes	149.81	0.4%	$0.6
Diligent-Relish	Yes	146.45	6.8%	$10
pentacap	Yes	139	0.0%	$0
dg3n	Yes	130.58	3.3%	$4.12
shadowwizardmoneygang	Yes	128.48	2.3%	$2.83
suohayiba	Yes	125	8.0%	$10
met.	Yes	123.33	6.5%	$8
deepsleep	Yes	120	3.2%	$3.89
cutecatcreature	Yes	117	8.5%	$9.95
krish2025	Yes	112	2.6%	$2.8
ghorrock	Yes	107.77	14.4%	$15.55
Royal Ledger 915D	Yes	101.8	7.2%	$7.38
88mnm88	No	101.12	90.1%	$91.15
Crimson Summit 6D33	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
Abchjac	Yes	100	3.1%	$3
ma99	Yes	100	0.3%	$0.3
akunai	Yes	100	0.3%	$0.3
Mrtrane	Yes	100	7.3%	$7.3
xiaodouzi	Yes	100	0.7%	$0.7
human.bean	Yes	97.52	10.8%	$10.55
lissartter	No	94.49	86.7%	$81.9
jennylulu2016	Yes	94	10.0%	$9.4
LaggyDoggy	Yes	93.75	3.4%	$3
Fragrant-Cord	Yes	92.88	10.8%	$10
Official-Carnival	Yes	83.92	2.5%	$2
rrm17pl	Yes	82	1.2%	$0.93	Sep 23, 3:57 PM UTC
fabic-ai	Yes	81.97	6.1%	$5
products	Yes	80.34	16.7%	$13.39
exmateriae	Yes	80	2.4%	$1.84
nryy	Yes	79.11	11.3%	$8.91
Right-Empowerment	Yes	79.02	6.3%	$5
heymay	Yes	76.92	12.8%	$9.84
andtay	Yes	71.4	3.1%	$2.09
GingerMcKenna	Yes	71.11	12.0%	$8.45
Po1yBot-CxTGMF8xAd	No	63.81	89.8%	$57.32
Rapid Falcon 3E2E	Yes	60.01	10.9%	$6.54
DaenerysTargaryen1	Yes	60	5.0%	$3
weatherrepoter	Yes	60	5.3%	$3.18
rated	Yes	58.88	16.7%	$9.81
brzcfh	Yes	58.86	3.5%	$2
BikesAreTheBikes	Yes	57.65	16.7%	$9.61
branci	Yes	54.29	9.2%	$5
Monkeymico	Yes	53.88	3.7%	$2
Googolmoney	Yes	53.4	6.7%	$3.6
puzatic	No	50	97.0%	$48.5
strangeduck2	Yes	50	20.0%	$10
Neon Horizon D1C3	Yes	49.26	10.0%	$4.93
DaFeiji	Yes	46.15	10.8%	$5
wavesinthesky	Yes	44.08	5.0%	$2.14
JasonHall6641	No	44	92.2%	$40.57
tweetmaster	Yes	44	3.6%	$1.5
Bohjae	Yes	43.78	8.3%	$3.63
Tidy-Elf	Yes	43.48	2.4%	$1
Slimy-Church-Excursion	Yes	41.67	2.4%	$1
penseraro	Yes	41.67	2.5%	$1
Coral Raven 842F	Yes	41.67	2.5%	$1
Purple-Carpeting	Yes	41.67	2.5%	$1
Yummy-Bank	Yes	41.24	4.8%	$2
Jade Comet 0BB3	Yes	40.9	8.5%	$3.47
cryptobaldi	Yes	40	2.6%	$1
KickstandBot	Yes	40	13.0%	$5.2
ruxuan	Yes	40	2.6%	$1
gellej	Yes	37.92	13.2%	$5
toasterwaffles	Yes	37.7	6.1%	$2.3
Hefty-Harbour	Yes	36.68	2.9%	$1
Unique-Sea	Yes	36.42	5.5%	$2
Razirback	No	35.28	97.8%	$34.5
jiggawatts	Yes	34.68	5.8%	$2
priestar	Yes	34.67	8.6%	$3
Merry-Bar	Yes	34.23	10.3%	$3.52
Golden Lynx F748	No	33.81	88.2%	$29.82
Reckless-Hacienda	Yes	33.33	3.1%	$1
kpax91	Yes	33	6.0%	$2
SapoRey	Yes	32.4	7.9%	$2.56
Imundi	Yes	31.57	6.3%	$2
CryptoGrampXP	Yes	31.25	3.4%	$1
Lovelisa	Yes	31.25	3.4%	$1
gpunfv1	No	30	92.0%	$27.6
Pepijn2026	Yes	30	10.2%	$3.06
Responsible-Rainy	Yes	30	6.7%	$2.01
Vassago	Yes	29.78	6.7%	$2
ASC222	Yes	28.93	6.9%	$2
Mattia.Ilenotti	Yes	28.45	8.9%	$2.54
e46m3	Yes	28.25	16.7%	$4.71	Oct 13, 5:56 PM UTC
Nordforsola	Yes	28.11	3.5%	$1
FrankG4728	Yes	28	7.1%	$1.99
MartySupreme123	Yes	27.93	17.9%	$5
MajinGoku	Yes	27.03	3.7%	$1
Academic-Forecast	Yes	26.15	2.8%	$0.69	Aug 19, 5:18 PM UTC
Kindhearted-Hearthside	Yes	26	3.7%	$0.96
axiol	No	24.52	83.4%	$20.46
Treetree0416	Yes	21.74	4.6%	$1
BobbyBakedBeans	Yes	20.83	0.0%	$0	Aug 7, 12:41 PM UTC
Silver Kestrel 9506	Yes	20.41	9.8%	$2
RomanPopov	No	20	87.0%	$17.4
Mitakaasa7	Yes	20	10.0%	$2
KellyCarzy	Yes	20	6.5%	$1.3
LBZbot2	Yes	20	12.6%	$2.52
geewavey	Yes	20	15.0%	$3
danielitojuliuss	Yes	19.12	10.4%	$2
E.T	Yes	19.05	10.5%	$2
JoE	No	19.02	93.6%	$17.8
Cautious-Compliance	Yes	18.78	10.2%	$1.92
Flamboyant-Warming	Yes	18.59	1.7%	$0.32
Bold Signal 2375	Yes	18.4	10.0%	$1.84
uKuLeLsOn	No	17.63	96.4%	$17
kulestad	No	17.39	92.0%	$16
Zealous-Verb	Yes	16.39	6.1%	$1
g4z3ll3	Yes	15.96	2.1%	$0.34
Considerate-Criteria	Yes	15.93	11.3%	$1.8
Gullible-Squid	Yes	15.63	6.4%	$1
fhdfsf	No	15.27	99.3%	$15.16	Sep 15, 1:46 AM UTC
Ivory Comet 6434	Yes	15	6.1%	$0.92
Troubled-Document	Yes	14.71	6.8%	$1
Basic-Crayfish	Yes	13.89	7.2%	$1
56654	No	13.3	99.6%	$13.25	Oct 3, 4:16 PM UTC
0xAfb9	Yes	13.01	8.3%	$1.08
frank19571	Yes	13	21.0%	$2.73
Altapath	Yes	12.66	7.9%	$1
FrankSchaamvader	Yes	12.66	7.9%	$1
Flat-Departure	Yes	11.76	8.5%	$1
quidy	Yes	11.49	0.0%	$0
Rezolutionz	Yes	11	9.8%	$1.08
realasung2	Yes	10.96	12.6%	$1.38
rsabahor	No	10.33	97.0%	$10
1fh57z4nj1nd	Yes	10.19	10.8%	$1.1
Itchy-Nerve	Yes	10.1	10.2%	$1.03
NoLoyaltyToTheBosses	No	10	92.2%	$9.21	Aug 6, 7:48 PM UTC
BSZm6Gqb	Yes	10	4.1%	$0.41
vven	Yes	10	10.0%	$1
Risky-MooLa	Yes	10	10.3%	$1.04
fdsjlajfoiejjdlfaj	Yes	10	17.5%	$1.75
3w2epg1zjow2	Yes	8.73	12.6%	$1.1
Mirroring	No	8.21	97.6%	$8
Old-Downgrade	Yes	8.2	12.2%	$1
Cosmic Sphinx 4763	Yes	8	12.5%	$1
wert4	No	7.22	97.8%	$7.05	Aug 30, 9:32 PM UTC
qwngmwruth	No	6.75	91.9%	$6.2
xyl5ceqnl9vm	Yes	6.53	12.4%	$0.81
Kelly5	No	6.42	93.4%	$6
Lunar Summit ADE4	No	6.35	89.8%	$5.7
Yungenboy	No	6.2	96.7%	$6
abc1231112441	Yes	6	14.9%	$0.89
3-mil-on-tour	Yes	6	10.0%	$0.6
Sleepy-Cactus	Yes	6	0.1%	$0.01
gamblingbling	Yes	6	16.7%	$1
Wordy-Doctrine	Yes	5.76	2.9%	$0.16
MartySupreme123	No	5.65	88.5%	$5
Silver Maven 1E0F	No	5.61	89.1%	$5
s795kj78nr2n	Yes	5.59	17.9%	$1
Cosmic Horizon F69D	Yes	5.59	17.9%	$1
Inteligante	No	5.34	93.6%	$5
Jade Atlas 0EAA	No	5.22	92.5%	$4.83
Slothtrop	Yes	5.14	3.0%	$0.15
Stable-Administration	Yes	5.09	16.7%	$0.85
Bright Comet B56F	No	5.08	99.2%	$5
Jade Maven F224	Yes	5.01	25.0%	$1.25
Minitest	No	5	93.9%	$4.7
denso	Yes	5	10.0%	$0.5
Misty Voyager D9F7	Yes	5	4.0%	$0.2
DeveloperAmateur	Yes	5	8.1%	$0.41
nivgg	Yes	4.76	21.0%	$1
iamlosing1111	Yes	4.74	10.0%	$0.47
ktxaerik	No	4.71	91.8%	$4.32
hpsharon	No	4.62	91.0%	$4.2
wankerjoesleeper	Yes	4.35	0.0%	$0
PocoMoco4	No	4.26	94.0%	$4
MatthewJones4280	No	4	91.0%	$3.64
ChristineWilson3432	Yes	4	9.0%	$0.36
Bigggggggg	Yes	3.9	6.6%	$0.26	Oct 7, 6:08 AM UTC
Balleenos	No	3.33	90.0%	$3
ETHBIBER	No	3.19	94.1%	$3
ScottNguyen2159	Yes	3.17	8.1%	$0.26
Amber Scout C64F	No	3.12	97.8%	$3.05	Sep 1, 5:15 AM UTC
marcoab	No	3.12	89.8%	$2.8
jabbadabba	No	3.09	91.4%	$2.83
OliviaCohen3311	No	3	91.0%	$2.73
issue-drama	Yes	3	8.9%	$0.27
Azure Quasar BBFA	No	2.98	90.1%	$2.68
mirabu	Yes	2.92	24.0%	$0.7
animal.bean	Yes	2.76	19.3%	$0.53
kunsect7	No	2.53	92.6%	$2.34
uk9do64m3ij8	No	2.41	91.4%	$2.2
evpevelyn	No	2.26	91.8%	$2.08
tracydrf	No	2.23	88.8%	$1.98
Lukerson	No	2.18	91.9%	$2
JustBot	Yes	2.15	7.2%	$0.15
boniegreen	No	2.07	96.7%	$2
KennethMorgan7146	No	2	92.0%	$1.84
ErikaBlackwell5731	No	2	91.0%	$1.82
poolVoice	Yes	2	9.7%	$0.19
Jade Vector A907	No	1.79	99.8%	$1.79	Sep 27, 9:09 PM UTC
HorseO	No	1.75	93.4%	$1.63
Emerald Voyager D690	No	1.35	91.4%	$1.23
OmeadAzadeh	No	1.25	97.8%	$1.22	Aug 30, 9:32 PM UTC
45h8xp65ogca	No	1.23	89.1%	$1.1
meris80tmeph	No	1.14	91.4%	$1.04
Popol11	No	1.14	87.9%	$1
Cosmic Beacon BAD0	No	1.11	90.0%	$1
ShuaiZhengAlfred	No	1.11	90.3%	$1
moonrise-clump	No	1.1	90.7%	$1
Portly-Dwelling	No	1.09	91.4%	$1
Indelible-Ginger	No	1.09	91.6%	$1
Functional-Lumber	No	1.09	91.7%	$1
Negligible-Windscreen	No	1.02	98.2%	$1	Aug 21, 3:18 AM UTC
Violet Quasar 2A42	No	1.01	98.8%	$1
AmyAndrade6157	No	1	91.0%	$0.91
escape-impulse	No	1	91.1%	$0.91
more-olive-exhibit	No	1	91.1%	$0.91
pigxk87	No	1	91.1%	$0.91
enforce-staff	No	1	90.3%	$0.9
VirginiaCampbell2719	No	1	91.0%	$0.91
amateurOnline	No	1	91.1%	$0.91
poolThumb	No	1	90.3%	$0.9
fostercy91	No	1	91.1%	$0.91
release979	No	1	90.3%	$0.9
fastpic	Yes	1	13.0%	$0.13
AlanEdwards9594	Yes	1	7.9%	$0.08
TiffanyDillon6595	No	0.91	92.1%	$0.84
White-Donkey	No	0.89	97.0%	$0.83
Sunny-Course	Yes	0.83	0.7%	$0.01	Sep 25, 4:46 PM UTC
LetTheGoodTimesRoll	Yes	0.82	9.2%	$0.08
pd.unique	Yes	0.8	16.7%	$0.13
PPMT	No	0.75	97.6%	$0.73
rocky42013	Yes	0.72	4.6%	$0.03
MalloryNorris9898	No	0.72	92.0%	$0.66
bulbnbob	No	0.69	93.8%	$0.65
ivybaby01	Yes	0.67	2.3%	$0.02
SeanBarton8631	No	0.66	90.0%	$0.59
Gargantuan-Mister	Yes	0.62	11.6%	$0.07
387411007415611814092217897387	No	0.53	90.9%	$0.48
ahhdumbo	Yes	0.51	8.1%	$0.04
Quiet Beacon 7EAB	Yes	0.5	2.2%	$0.01	Aug 16, 9:40 AM UTC
nrod80	No	0.42	91.9%	$0.39
lianmenhu	No	0.4	92.2%	$0.37
Violet Orbit 55C3	Yes	0.33	3.1%	$0.01
51dgfd	Yes	0.28	2.1%	$0.01	Aug 12, 5:36 AM UTC
25oodksmsss09	Yes	0.27	2.0%	$0.01
ghorrock	No	0.25	97.8%	$0.24
LeahHall1216	Yes	0.24	8.0%	$0.02
labubulalala	Yes	0.17	9.0%	$0.02
no1biao	Yes	0.16	12.0%	$0.02
Grizzled-Depression	No	0.13	82.2%	$0.11
a5533	No	0.13	98.1%	$0.13

310 of 310 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$161.25K
Elias.Thornwell	$616.7
ScottNguyen2159	$213

Analytics