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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 5.04 | $0.800 | $4.01 | -$0.03 |
 Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No | sell | 8.13 | $0.460 | $3.74 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 |
| Yes |
| 5.12 |
| $0.250 |
| $3.89 |
| +$2.61 |
 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 15.55 | $0.170 | $3.5 | +$0.86 |
 Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 72.52 | $0.028 | $2.5 | +$0.47 |
 Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 40.56 | $0.040 | $2.29 | +$0.67 |
 Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 91.57 | $0.016 | $2.24 | +$0.74 |
 Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 6.05 | $0.340 | $1.72 | -$0.33 |
 Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 306.93 | $0.008 | $1.69 | -$0.91 |
 Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 61.13 | $0.022 | $1.44 | +$0.09 |
 Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? | Yes | 7.73 | $0.230 | $1.2 | -$0.58 |
 Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 155.38 | $0.008 | $1.17 | -$0.07 |
 Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 38.52 | $0.014 | $1.16 | +$0.6 |
 Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 107.31 | $0.009 | $1.02 | +$0.05 |
 Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 35.92 | $0.023 | $0.95 | +$0.13 |
 Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 5.06 | $0.180 | $0.66 | -$0.25 |
 SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6.33 | $0.222 | $0.6 | -$0.8 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 22.14 | $0.022 | $0.52 | +$0.03 |
 Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 34.98 | $0.020 | $0.44 | -$0.26 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 5.01 | $0.250 | $0.43 | -$0.83 |
 Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 13.54 | $0.025 | $0.4 | +$0.06 |
 Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 5.61 | $0.110 | $0.35 | -$0.27 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 20.23 | $0.014 | $0.31 | +$0.03 |
 Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | Yes | 4.81 | $0.140 | $0.24 | -$0.43 |
 Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 32.5 | $0.009 | $0.21 | -$0.07 |
 Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 34.39 | $0.009 | $0.19 | -$0.12 |
| sell |
| 10.73 |
| $0.993 |
| $10.65 |
| Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 55.88 | $0.073 | $4.08 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?No | sell | 5.05 | $0.810 | $4.09 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | sell | 7.74 | $0.540 | $4.18 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Yes | sell | 5.15 | $0.830 | $4.27 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 55.03 | $0.076 | $4.18 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No | sell | 5.66 | $0.760 | $4.3 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes | sell | 19.53 | $0.220 | $4.3 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.874 | $4.37 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?No | sell | 5.23 | $0.860 | $4.5 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No | sell | 5.53 | $0.900 | $4.98 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?No | sell | 5 | $0.900 | $4.5 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?No | sell | 5.01 | $0.950 | $4.76 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes | sell | 9.16 | $0.530 | $4.85 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?No | sell | 5 | $0.980 | $4.9 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 5.67 | $0.870 | $4.93 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes | sell | 12.44 | $0.400 | $4.98 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 101.99 | $0.050 | $5.1 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | sell | 11.48 | $0.450 | $5.17 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?No | sell | 5.84 | $0.890 | $5.2 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Trump out as President by July 31?No | sell | 6.75 | $0.992 | $6.7 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 6.29 | $0.890 | $5.6 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Trump out as President by July 31?No | sell | 10.33 | $0.992 | $10.25 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?No | sell | 6.89 | $0.820 | $5.65 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No | sell | 6.26 | $0.965 | $6.04 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 6.17 | $0.985 | $6.08 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 46.18 | $0.137 | $6.33 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 6.59 | $0.968 | $6.38 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 JD Vance out as VP by December 31?No | sell | 7.16 | $0.920 | $6.59 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No | sell | 11.15 | $0.620 | $6.91 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?No | sell | 7.68 | $0.909 | $6.98 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes | sell | 8.73 | $0.820 | $7.16 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 9.69 | $0.750 | $7.27 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?No | sell | 7.53 | $0.971 | $7.31 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 56.2 | $0.139 | $7.81 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No | sell | 10.15 | $0.810 | $8.22 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No | sell | 8.35 | $0.995 | $8.31 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes | sell | 21.67 | $0.389 | $8.43 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No | sell | 13.78 | $0.620 | $8.54 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | sell | 11.13 | $0.770 | $8.57 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Iran full airspace closure by July 31?No | sell | 11.44 | $0.810 | $9.27 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?No | sell | 14.15 | $0.670 | $9.48 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 98.89 | $0.219 | $21.66 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Trump out as President by July 31?No | sell | 13.71 | $0.992 | $13.6 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No | sell | 11.15 | $0.860 | $9.59 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 84.34 | $0.116 | $9.78 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Trump out as President by July 31?No | sell | 14.35 | $0.992 | $14.24 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 239.15 | $0.041 | $9.81 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes | sell | 10.4 | $0.955 | $9.93 | Jul 11, 2026 |