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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26? | Yes | 203.48 | $0.657 | $145.49 | +$11.77 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.050 | $10 | 1h ago |
|
| Yes |
| 348 |
| $0.402 |
| $130.5 |
| -$9.39 |
 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes | 1.11K | $0.142 | $116.42 | -$41.33 |
 Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 271.46 | $0.538 | $115.37 | -$30.7 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 775 | $0.153 | $96.88 | -$22.12 |
 Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 300.01 | $0.260 | $87 | +$9 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 346.66 | $0.168 | $46.8 | -$11.58 |
 Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 103 | $0.315 | $41.72 | +$9.26 |
| Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown? | No | 244.46 | $0.149 | $39.11 | +$2.75 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15? | Yes | 585.49 | $0.168 | $32.2 | -$66.09 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 406.86 | $0.070 | $26.45 | -$2.16 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 66.28 | $0.401 | $22.87 | -$3.71 |
 Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | Yes | 37.69 | $0.369 | $20.35 | +$6.43 |
 Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | Yes | 39 | $0.551 | $18.53 | -$2.95 |
 Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 20 | $0.670 | $18.2 | +$4.8 |
 Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | No | 40 | $0.411 | $16.32 | -$0.12 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | No | 119.99 | $0.195 | $15.6 | -$7.8 |
 Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 18.85 | $0.697 | $14.14 | +$0.99 |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? | Yes | 314 | $0.038 | $9.58 | -$2.28 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | No | 29.9 | $0.310 | $8.97 | -$0.3 |
 SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? | Yes | 11.85 | $0.690 | $8.18 | -$0 |
 Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 117.16 | $0.105 | $7.91 | -$4.36 |
 Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 61.08 | $0.181 | $7.63 | -$3.42 |
 Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 57.18 | $0.163 | $6.86 | -$2.47 |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | No | 17.98 | $0.326 | $5.66 | -$0.2 |
| sell |
| 96.03 |
| $0.061 |
| $5.88 |
| 1h ago |
 Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Yes | sell | 15.37 | $0.013 | $0.2 | 11h ago |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?Yes | sell | 154.26 | $0.103 | $15.83 | 13h ago |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 27.75 | $0.098 | $2.72 | 1d ago |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 33 | $0.098 | $3.23 | 1d ago |
 Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?Yes | buy | 4.99 | $0.478 | $2.39 | 1d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.120 | $1.08 | 1d ago |
| Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.800 | $5.6 | 1d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.180 | $3.6 | 2d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Yes | sell | 11.35 | $0.001 | $0.01 | 2d ago |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?Yes | sell | 3.73 | $0.420 | $1.57 | 2d ago |
 Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 10.6 | $0.718 | $7.61 | 2d ago |
| Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 19.6 | $0.720 | $14.11 | 2d ago |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.630 | $12.6 | 2d ago |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Yes | sell | 80 | $0.640 | $51.2 | 2d ago |
 Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.172 | $1.72 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.176 | $3.52 | 2d ago |
| Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?Yes | sell | 30 | $0.177 | $5.31 | 2d ago |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.140 | $2.8 | 2d ago |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?Yes | buy | 145.37 | $0.090 | $13.08 | 2d ago |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T?No | buy | 53 | $0.320 | $16.96 | 3d ago |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T?No | buy | 50 | $0.310 | $15.5 | 3d ago |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?No | buy | 40 | $0.200 | $8 | 3d ago |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?No | buy | 50 | $0.200 | $10 | 3d ago |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 81.08 | $0.023 | $1.82 | 3d ago |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.260 | $5.2 | 3d ago |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 119.32 | $0.020 | $2.39 | 3d ago |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.410 | $16.4 | 3d ago |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes | buy | 70 | $0.410 | $28.7 | 3d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.060 | $12 | 3d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 180 | $0.130 | $23.4 | 3d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.130 | $7.8 | 3d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.060 | $3 | 3d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.060 | $2.4 | 3d ago |
 Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.126 | $3.78 | 3d ago |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.126 | $1.01 | 3d ago |
| Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.630 | $25.2 | 3d ago |
| Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Yes | buy | 29 | $0.035 | $1.02 | 3d ago |
 Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.140 | $2.8 | 3d ago |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.850 | $4.25 | 3d ago |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.800 | $4 | 3d ago |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?No | sell | 5 | $0.143 | $0.72 | 3d ago |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.850 | $4.25 | 3d ago |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?No | buy | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | 3d ago |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes | buy | 117 | $0.400 | $46.8 | 3d ago |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.400 | $32 | 3d ago |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.430 | $4.3 | 4d ago |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Yes | buy | 71.69 | $0.420 | $30.11 | 4d ago |
| Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?Yes | buy | 68.52 | $0.102 | $6.99 | 4d ago |