Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Name: Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

politicsActive

Closes Nov 4, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.1%

100.0%

Yes costs 0.05¢No costs 99.95¢

24h Volume

$1.4M

Total volume

$1.4M

Liquidity

$118.1K

Closes

Nov 4, 2026 UTC

Topic room2026 US Midterms

Open positions

The positions Polymarket reports for this market, largest first.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	498.73K	0.0%	$0
Key-Sportsman	Yes	89.2K	4.0%	$3.57K
caviaro	Yes	61.9K	0.1%	$61.9	Jun 22, 6:51 PM UTC
Fine-Tributary	Yes	47K	93.6%	$44K
debased	Yes	19.59K	2.2%	$435.41
Chungvicular	Yes	17.72K	7.0%	$1.25K
Neon Signal B49B	Yes	17.36K	12.1%	$2.11K
Hasty-Worker	Yes	14.54K	2.2%	$323.09
e46m3	Yes	13.6K	2.2%	$302.18
jjster	Yes	12.71K	0.6%	$74.98
donthackme	Yes	12.71K	2.2%	$282.44	Jun 21, 4:05 PM UTC
Bigggggggg	Yes	12.51K	2.2%	$276.57
DM123	Yes	11.34K	35.0%	$3.96K
Lucerys	Yes	10.87K	2.2%	$241.58
Misty Pulse EA5A	Yes	10K	0.1%	$10
shinyandrew	Yes	10K	2.1%	$210
0xheavy888	No	9.37K	51.9%	$4.86K
Emerald Kestrel F8B4	Yes	9K	0.1%	$8.99	Aug 19, 6:16 PM UTC
Jovial-Remains-Scarf	Yes	8.72K	2.2%	$193.86
Luminous-Bibliography	Yes	7.06K	3.9%	$265.58
qwen300.fund	Yes	5.85K	2.2%	$126.95
twinna	Yes	5.25K	2.9%	$147.03
Jade Quasar D7A7	Yes	4.8K	5.1%	$243.19
cigarettes	Yes	4.25K	2.2%	$94.51
LeopoldArschenbrenner	Yes	4.23K	2.3%	$93.1
gopay	Yes	4K	0.1%	$4
Turbulent-Decline-Router	Yes	3.91K	2.3%	$90.34
balthazar	Yes	3.83K	2.2%	$85.03
Studious-Banyan	Yes	3.77K	13.3%	$500.57
PigsandBattleships	Yes	3.6K	8.4%	$299.94
Hourglass	Yes	3.59K	2.2%	$79.71
HerrieDavis	Yes	3.58K	2.3%	$82.91
JohnP92	Yes	3.54K	2.3%	$79.7
Cobalt Atlas A4C2	Yes	3.44K	2.2%	$76.46	Jun 21, 6:18 PM UTC
dreamingToBeAGuru	Yes	3.28K	2.3%	$73.48
Nutty-Shopping	No	3K	96.1%	$2.88K
aHjCz	Yes	2.93K	2.2%	$65.04
flawfence	Yes	2.89K	2.1%	$61.07
mao01	Yes	2.7K	0.2%	$5.4
Gohst	No	2.66K	15.0%	$399.99
welcomyfriend	Yes	2.5K	0.1%	$2.5
tiger5511	Yes	2.12K	1.1%	$24.36
lpgb	Yes	2.05K	2.2%	$45.54
Admirable-Trust	Yes	1.85K	2.2%	$41.02
Sick-Browser	Yes	1.79K	14.0%	$250
Misty Kestrel CAC1	Yes	1.69K	2.2%	$35.6
rondon89	Yes	1.61K	3.4%	$53.28
a4esniw	Yes	1.49K	10.1%	$150
Flamboyant-Warming	Yes	1.48K	1.6%	$23.02
co2	Yes	1.48K	13.5%	$199
simplystupid188	Yes	1.4K	1.3%	$18.51
Extra-Large-Begonia	No	1.29K	96.3%	$1.24K
Soulful-Graffiti	Yes	1.22K	41.0%	$500.03
puipui2486	Yes	1.22K	2.2%	$27
projectparrot	Yes	1.17K	1.2%	$14.02
PBroker	Yes	1.14K	2.2%	$25.44
ACara	Yes	1.13K	1.4%	$15.43
peepeepooppoop	Yes	1.05K	2.2%	$23.11
dcposch	Yes	1.03K	35.8%	$367.16
Gorea	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jul 25, 7:06 AM UTC
labistiiia	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1
norealtime	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1
PuffyCrow2026	Yes	1K	0.2%	$2
redbulldaaa	Yes	1K	0.4%	$4
QJC	Yes	999.95	15.0%	$149.99
LornaPredicts	Yes	940.36	0.6%	$5.8
GingerMcKenna	Yes	919.89	0.6%	$5.47
Metallic-Sourwood	Yes	902.4	11.1%	$100
ideas-501	Yes	865.09	17.3%	$150
AngryRhino	Yes	843.23	2.2%	$18.74
plainfolder	Yes	841.65	2.1%	$17.77	Jun 21, 6:18 PM UTC
godblessme2026	Yes	821.78	2.2%	$18.21
Athletic-Manager	Yes	817.96	12.2%	$100
Elias.Thornwell	Yes	810.55	1.4%	$10.86
avengers2357avengers	Yes	724	2.2%	$16.09
korda77	Yes	615.13	2.1%	$13.28
bingbong111	Yes	566.56	17.6%	$100
graynotebook19	Yes	563.05	2.2%	$12.49
merod	Yes	527.15	2.1%	$11.27
Spiffy-Win	Yes	500	9.0%	$45
Which-Astrology	Yes	500	0.2%	$1
Emerald Signal 8B8D	Yes	500	0.2%	$1
fourcoin15m	Yes	482.8	2.2%	$10.73
northdrawer	Yes	482.31	2.1%	$10.27
forgotmydinner	Yes	477.78	2.2%	$10.62
KickstandBot	Yes	450.23	1.8%	$7.99
ontouch	Yes	420	2.2%	$9.33
BlueStarLtd	Yes	416.67	2.5%	$10
smallreceipt	Yes	387.21	2.2%	$8.48
buoys	Yes	369.99	1.1%	$4.07
123987456	Yes	337.63	2.2%	$7.5
ssssssssssdsd	Yes	312	9.0%	$28.08
pd.unique	Yes	311.92	2.2%	$6.93
budmoney	Yes	308.89	9.0%	$27.8
ghorrock	Yes	308	2.2%	$6.84
PollyForge	Yes	300.01	0.7%	$2.01
akko123	Yes	300	0.1%	$0.3
El-Coronel	Yes	300	1.3%	$4
Bsau4	Yes	298.63	8.0%	$23.89
ox7a8Fe7b6934c1B5CdA555FBD5731a57E2683D9ee	Yes	284	0.3%	$0.85
lizzyb	Yes	278.85	9.5%	$26.49
aliiz	Yes	278	2.5%	$6.67
quietparcel	Yes	258.2	2.2%	$5.7
romaniaontop	Yes	256.37	11.9%	$30.48
mildwindow27	Yes	235.1	2.2%	$5.22
Willing-Panic	Yes	215.47	2.7%	$5.82
cash-machine	Yes	209	2.2%	$4.64	Jun 21, 4:05 PM UTC
god83743894	Yes	207.1	2.2%	$4.6
dkbroly15	Yes	204.48	8.0%	$16.36
poposub	Yes	200.2	2.1%	$4.28
5-min	Yes	200	0.1%	$0.2
Wwwinner	Yes	200	0.1%	$0.2
Acidic-Sparerib-Bonfire	Yes	200	15.0%	$30
Azure Oracle 45F0	Yes	182.61	8.0%	$14.61
Swift Raven 390A	Yes	178.99	1.1%	$2.03
WarriorH	Yes	172.34	2.2%	$3.83
cryingbabydicer87	Yes	170	2.2%	$3.78
Jade Quasar D7A7	No	152.36	89.0%	$135.61
Deafening-Possible	Yes	150	0.1%	$0.15
Cowboy.Bebop	Yes	134.46	29.7%	$40
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	133.49	0.0%	$0
Arbga2026	Yes	126	9.8%	$12.39
Hidden-Primary	Yes	125	8.3%	$10
Coral Voyager D8CE	Yes	116.28	8.7%	$10.17
New-Noun	Yes	111.11	9.0%	$10
dankvalue	Yes	107.14	14.0%	$15
Rougrot	Yes	105.72	7.8%	$8.22
BSS37	Yes	102.22	0.1%	$0.1
haveagoodday	Yes	100.25	2.2%	$2.23
fm14	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
akunai	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
Dr.Sharif	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1	Jul 19, 4:52 AM UTC
ma99	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
cwc909	Yes	100	1.1%	$1.14
AheadArbitrage	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1	Aug 19, 6:35 PM UTC
Biver52	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
0xjanestreet	Yes	100	5.0%	$5
TENETENET	Yes	99.97	0.1%	$0.1
quiddy	Yes	99.3	0.0%	$0
Hideous-Monastery	Yes	96.21	10.4%	$10
we-are-the-world2	No	92.79	97.9%	$90.75
cowcat	Yes	86.82	2.2%	$1.93
Lowtaperfade	Yes	85	1.4%	$1.1
gajistan	Yes	84.71	3.5%	$2.88
RadioCCOD	Yes	83.33	12.0%	$10
Timely-Neighbor	Yes	80.78	9.0%	$7.27
awgraewrfa	Yes	80.65	2.2%	$1.79
BASSATS01	Yes	75.02	8.0%	$6
vamosgaming	Yes	75	2.2%	$1.67
alwayslatetotheparty	Yes	74.28	2.2%	$1.65
Swift Voyager 3CEC	Yes	67.33	14.0%	$9.43
jennylulu2016	Yes	67	1.1%	$0.76
jonnyblaze	Yes	66.67	9.0%	$6
mapleggg	Yes	63.43	2.2%	$1.41
LesterDiamond	Yes	61.54	0.9%	$0.55
WhoseHouseRamsHouse	No	60	91.7%	$55
a5tthsyuo3c	Yes	60	2.2%	$1.33
warptrading	No	59.52	84.0%	$50
Murky-Contrast	Yes	55	8.0%	$4.4
UbuntuTrading	Yes	51.75	2.2%	$1.15
2B9S	No	50	22.0%	$11
KingCaker	Yes	50	2.2%	$1.11
Garvit1811	Yes	50	10.0%	$5
PragueSizeLord	Yes	50	6.0%	$3
triklozoid	Yes	50	0.1%	$0.05
vviejfiejfeiejfiii221	Yes	48.25	2.2%	$1.07
0xReb94dd51ee240ce157787b87ff2e0a639db1-43	Yes	47.72	2.0%	$0.97
Novus0rdoSeclorum	Yes	46.65	2.2%	$1.04
Tee1000	Yes	46.61	2.2%	$1.01
nigelrares	Yes	45.9	13.1%	$6
capetsa	Yes	45	11.2%	$5.06
broskye	Yes	44	2.2%	$0.98
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	43.11	9.0%	$3.88
JordanMooney	Yes	42.2	0.1%	$0.05
paspor	Yes	41	2.2%	$0.91
bnblabs	No	40	96.8%	$38.72
LBZbot2	No	40	90.3%	$36.13
Anon234	No	32.47	77.0%	$25
JoE	No	32	87.7%	$28.07
PiEDawg	Yes	31.05	2.2%	$0.69
Main222	No	31	99.2%	$30.77
AJK2	No	30.06	99.8%	$30
ForgShman	No	29.41	68.0%	$20
OmaJane	Yes	28.48	0.0%	$0
mwenya	Yes	26.36	3.2%	$0.82
TraderProMax	Yes	25.01	8.0%	$2
HappyHippocampus	Yes	25	0.1%	$0.03
eggsando	Yes	23.33	2.4%	$0.56
planktonXD	Yes	22.85	20.3%	$4.65
asfdt29	Yes	21.76	9.9%	$2.15
Pepperonilover	Yes	20.83	24.0%	$5
pestanimal	Yes	20.34	1.1%	$0.23
Marillenknoedel80750	Yes	19.09	12.0%	$2.29
almondlover9	No	18.67	79.0%	$14.75
SarahThomson	No	18.35	97.1%	$17.8
64MGX75VLQ	No	16	99.9%	$15.98
hernandezkelly	No	15	97.8%	$14.65
gail76	No	15	96.4%	$14.46
Genuine-Vintage	Yes	15	0.1%	$0.02
TerranSupremacy	Yes	14.86	23.5%	$3.5
Keen Kestrel E421	Yes	14.03	2.2%	$0.31
makt9b	Yes	13.33	15.0%	$2
UssTrippingHigh	No	12.27	96.3%	$11.8
Rapid Atlas EECD	No	12	91.0%	$10.92
Luup	Yes	11.76	17.0%	$2
destropyer	Yes	11.5	21.0%	$2.42
BigT666999	Yes	11.11	9.0%	$1
Azure Meteor 8E60	Yes	11.01	7.0%	$0.77
Dstrd	Yes	11	0.4%	$0.04
Jade Lynx AF56	No	10.92	96.0%	$10.48
goldeye	No	10.08	73.0%	$7.36
eredfgfg	No	10	83.0%	$8.3
hesure	No	10	5.0%	$0.5
babyalgo	Yes	10	1.1%	$0.11
ludka228	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
frank19571	Yes	10	14.0%	$1.4
parklsonstt	No	8.5	87.0%	$7.4
Barcafansaodk	No	8.5	85.0%	$7.23
zerosmarket	No	8.5	87.0%	$7.4
ckwes	No	8.5	87.0%	$7.4
Pol1-380	Yes	7.69	13.0%	$1
Tempting-Wannabe	Yes	7.5	10.0%	$0.75
Slothtrop	Yes	7.48	0.1%	$0.01
moon-k58-lad	Yes	7.39	0.0%	$0
khamanal	No	7	99.3%	$6.95
Nuipan	Yes	6.67	15.0%	$1
FlashTradeOracleTester	No	6.52	68.0%	$4.43
Rapid Maven 53CA	No	6.51	96.9%	$6.31
Golden Falcon FAE8	No	6.1	82.0%	$5
Jade Maven 6EBC	Yes	6.06	12.0%	$0.73
3-mil-on-tour	Yes	6	1.1%	$0.07
Sleepy-Cactus	Yes	6	0.1%	$0.01
numberonejj	Yes	6	12.0%	$0.72
maakelele	Yes	5.88	17.0%	$1
NoLoyaltyToTheBosses	Yes	5.82	0.0%	$0
MaximusGluteusDumpTruckus	No	5.81	86.0%	$5
g4z3ll3	Yes	5.52	0.1%	$0.01
Unfortunate-Particle	Yes	5.38	0.0%	$0
Misty Oracle 1D15	Yes	5.01	23.0%	$1.15
barenverge	No	5	96.2%	$4.81
lovnil	No	5	86.0%	$4.3
derfgrcve	Yes	5	7.0%	$0.35
romney8y7	Yes	5	13.0%	$0.65
Indigo Ledger 61E6	Yes	5	33.4%	$1.67
Discrete-Kebab	Yes	5	0.9%	$0.04
Quiet Pulse 0D85	Yes	5	15.0%	$0.75
denso	Yes	5	1.1%	$0.06
Kastellvalen	Yes	5	2.2%	$0.11
YouSayUpISayDown	Yes	5	2.2%	$0.11
animal.bean	Yes	5	1.1%	$0.06
Silver Lynx 3015	Yes	4.83	0.4%	$0.02
firstman12	No	4.49	89.0%	$4
henrikkar	Yes	4.02	10.0%	$0.4
JustBot	No	3.88	79.0%	$3.07
SupersonicStrawberry	No	3.66	55.1%	$2.02
josephy	Yes	3.23	31.0%	$1
Grav	No	3.19	94.0%	$3
patrick-	Yes	2.86	35.0%	$1
thepolwinner	Yes	2.5	8.4%	$0.21
jipeng	No	2.17	92.0%	$2
purpledream	Yes	2	2.2%	$0.04
jensond	Yes	1.96	1.1%	$0.02
Keen Voyager 725F	No	1.62	96.6%	$1.56
Keen Summit 0EF8	No	1.54	65.0%	$1
vitalitytens	No	1.3	56.0%	$0.73
lockero	No	1.2	99.9%	$1.2	Jun 19, 11:18 PM UTC
srobbins	No	1.2	97.7%	$1.17
mehanizator	Yes	1.18	0.5%	$0.01
poihn	No	1.11	90.0%	$1
laji014	No	1.1	91.0%	$1
Stupendous-Tin	No	1.09	92.0%	$1
gososo	No	1.08	93.0%	$1
rstn	No	1.08	93.0%	$1
kristyrt	No	1.04	99.9%	$1.04
Bright Kestrel 65B1	No	1.04	96.6%	$1
Crimson Oracle 53B2	No	1.04	96.6%	$1
Solar Ledger 793E	No	1.04	96.6%	$1
Jade Maven 6EBC	No	1.02	95.0%	$0.97
Ginnex	No	1	99.9%	$1	Jun 20, 11:38 PM UTC
Silver Vector 759B	Yes	1	2.2%	$0.02
bulbnbob	No	0.99	89.0%	$0.88
igiveittoyou	Yes	0.99	7.0%	$0.07
Lisbon	No	0.82	96.8%	$0.8
sadff	No	0.8	90.0%	$0.72
no1biao	No	0.77	71.9%	$0.55
scottilicious	No	0.7	96.3%	$0.67
neutralwave23	Yes	0.63	8.0%	$0.05
Lavincey	Yes	0.59	1.2%	$0.01
nexusoptimus	Yes	0.55	0.3%	$0
JohnJJJ	Yes	0.54	20.2%	$0.11
Dependent-Convention	Yes	0.54	2.3%	$0.01
KenneyG	Yes	0.52	2.2%	$0.01
Ivory Meteor 83B3	Yes	0.5	6.0%	$0.03
Swift Harbor C6A7	No	0.43	92.0%	$0.4
manymeme	No	0.4	92.5%	$0.37
paspor	No	0.26	81.0%	$0.05
Bold Pioneer F3A3	No	0.23	91.9%	$0.22
Rapid Orbit 93C1	No	0.2	56.0%	$0.11
shine	Yes	0.17	1.0%	$0
rocky42010	Yes	0.12	5.8%	$0.01
itsjustcheddar	No	0.12	96.7%	$0.12
Neat-Robot	No	0.11	87.0%	$0.1

302 of 302 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$498.48K
0xheavy888	$9.37K
Nutty-Shopping	$3K

Topic room

Read this market in context

2026 US Midterms oddsWho will control Congress after the 2026 midterms?

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