What is the “NATO article 5 before 2027?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: NATO article 5 before 2027? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 6.1¢ and No at 93.9¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 6.1% for Yes and 93.9% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($10.27K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($27.47K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 143 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 89.4% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 23, 12:50 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/nato-article-5-before-2027) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

NATO article 5 before 2027? Polymarket Odds

Predictions Analytics

NATO article 5 before 2027? Polymarket Odds | Vultax

Market referencenato-article-5-before-2027Updated 1m ago

worldActive

Closes Jan 1, 2027 UTCnatogeopolitics

Yes

6.1%

93.9%

Buy Yes 6.1¢Buy No 93.9¢

24h Volume

$10.3K

Liquidity

$27.5K

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Yes price

6.1¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

6.1%

93.9%

24h volume

$10.27K

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 6.1¢

Open in terminal$10.27K 24h vol

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

3m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

2.0%

Observed

1m ago

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

6.1%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

143

Wallets

143

Top 10 share

89%

Yes / No shares

128.77K / 128.77K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

236

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
whysoslow	Yes	50.52K	6.1%	$50.52K	Sep 23, 3:31 AM UTC
gorovi	No	33.64K	90.4%	$33.64K	Sep 22, 12:25 PM UTC

Topic room

Every related market on one live board

NATO / Russia oddsWill Russia and NATO clash militarily?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “NATO article 5 before 2027?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: NATO article 5 before 2027? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 6.1¢ and No at 93.9¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 6.1% for Yes and 93.9% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($10.27K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($27.47K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Who holds the biggest positions in this market?: Vultax loaded 143 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 89.4% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
gorovi	$31.59K
MegaMario	$27.89K
NeH	$22.37K
Trashbag	$11.95K
J3cExePrd1KEM	$9.93K
Aq4ExePrd22Jn	$7.77K
whysoslow	$3.08K
forever123	$1.97K
vsesoso	$1.74K
LlamaLoco0000	$1.73K
Utoya	$1.41K
007-Bond	$938.65