Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

Name: Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

techResolved

No · settled Oct 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$644.2K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 1, 2026 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
user089	Yes	52.67K	10.5%	$5.51K
BrownBees	Yes	33.54K	10.5%	$3.49K
99problems123	Yes	26.81K	31.0%	$8.08K
notssf3	Yes	13.05K	12.6%	$1.62K
borntoolate.eth	Yes	11.53K	26.9%	$3.05K
Fearless-Misnomer	Yes	8.08K	15.3%	$1.22K
HerrieDavis	Yes	6.9K	15.8%	$1.09K
seal7	Yes	6.5K	31.8%	$2.01K
bigfunky	Yes	4.41K	13.9%	$598.64
royalestake	Yes	4K	29.0%	$1.16K
George.Smiley	Yes	3.83K	9.3%	$344.33
Brandona	Yes	3.12K	6.6%	$200
Odd-Deformation	Yes	3K	16.5%	$480
Growling-Brewer-Birth	Yes	2.67K	12.7%	$337.72
101456	Yes	2.63K	2.5%	$67.09
DumbyTheWizard	Yes	2.5K	6.2%	$150
sickkhunt	Yes	2.03K	31.9%	$630
Euan	Yes	1.84K	33.1%	$593.67
BikesAreTheBikes	Yes	1.82K	17.8%	$323.74
aeo-aeo	No	1.59K	69.1%	$1.08K
wan123	Yes	1.47K	34.7%	$498.94
Fitting-Mallet	Yes	1.28K	8.1%	$100
Dav1d10	Yes	1.22K	7.8%	$91.24
Spiffy-Win	Yes	1.15K	31.3%	$351.37
HawkishEdge	Yes	1.14K	0.9%	$10
Slim-Samurai	Yes	1.01K	0.1%	$1.01	Oct 1, 6:54 AM UTC
dgfd76	Yes	952.54	23.4%	$222.15
Soulwinder	Yes	741.94	31.9%	$230
8dcc906a9b	Yes	718.37	3.5%	$24.61
sdfjkshufkkshfk	Yes	710.29	1.5%	$10
ChairmanFed	Yes	688.86	2.1%	$14.14
qianduoduoduo	Yes	622	33.3%	$207.08
tradetosurvive1	Yes	545.55	15.3%	$83.73
Rigatonii	No	530.29	90.3%	$476.78
AmericanIsraelPublicAffairsCommittee	Yes	500	30.8%	$149.6
Kingspp	Yes	499.99	5.8%	$29
polymorpher-accumulator	Yes	499.99	28.2%	$140
Grimy-Detection	Yes	486.98	19.6%	$92.53
Quarrelsome-Branch	Yes	455	30.3%	$136.5
libratus1	Yes	435.43	21.1%	$91.72
Cheerful-Nucleotidase	Yes	433.59	7.2%	$30
johnnyA	Yes	400	3.1%	$11.81
ahwaph	Yes	393.17	2.6%	$10
Sidechick	Yes	300	7.3%	$21
GuyFromTinder	Yes	288.52	7.1%	$20.53
nullp	Yes	273.02	34.0%	$91.87
MetrixNeo	Yes	272.41	4.2%	$11
parameter1	Yes	241.85	14.5%	$34
anwarkeen	Yes	208	2.5%	$5
Pjvcr	Yes	200	5.2%	$10
issacxai	Yes	200	13.1%	$26
mustard	No	200	94.2%	$188.38
0tx75da981ghdb	Yes	177.24	9.3%	$16
Lemarto	Yes	150	23.8%	$35.5
pgosnp01	Yes	143.21	1.5%	$2
cooljit	Yes	139	30.8%	$41.7
clydedonovan	Yes	130	28.5%	$36.6
kirby26	Yes	120	24.1%	$28.96
Rommel27	Yes	116.2	0.9%	$1
AkjhAI	Yes	115	33.9%	$37.95
OllonPiercing	Yes	111.28	18.9%	$20.75
fell0w	Yes	111.11	0.9%	$1
nhnh	No	109.5	91.3%	$99.63
0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13	Yes	103.39	18.6%	$18.61
quantpredictions	Yes	100.01	13.0%	$13
bignewsagencypro	Yes	100	35.0%	$35
AntonDor	Yes	100	37.0%	$37
hack-vc	Yes	99.99	15.0%	$15
tBeotM	Yes	93.35	33.5%	$31.24
ghorrock	Yes	92.55	23.0%	$21.26
wpovniweijfowjp	Yes	86.22	9.3%	$7.76
xkis	Yes	84.18	6.2%	$5
yessirskis	Yes	80	30.4%	$23.7
Ornate-Emerald	Yes	80	13.8%	$11
Peppery-Strawman-Rhubarb	Yes	79.2	2.6%	$1.98
Mnsrfx	Yes	71.43	7.3%	$5
Elias.Thornwell	Yes	69.84	3.1%	$2.18
Euphoric-Variability	Yes	69.31	3.0%	$2
FiscalLiberalSocialConservative	Yes	67.26	30.5%	$20.37
predictgeek	Yes	67	31.8%	$20.9
Fihdrzgdd	Yes	64	28.0%	$17.92
cryptoman69	Yes	61.65	33.9%	$20.34
JohnnyDODEPP1	Yes	60	25.4%	$15.23
JPLP	Yes	59.99	13.0%	$7.8
Standard-Thunderhead	Yes	59.3	32.7%	$19.38
Elton123	Yes	53.74	22.6%	$11.84
0x0CD	Yes	50	9.3%	$4.5
holyshot	Yes	50	30.8%	$15
Keen Meteor 26F3	Yes	48.44	19.6%	$9.2
Darkpsico-	Yes	47.37	3.9%	$1.8
Smooth-Snowsuit	Yes	45.45	11.4%	$5
Blurry-Ball	Yes	45	3.5%	$1.51
anonaf	Yes	44.03	31.9%	$13.65
sand1	Yes	40	24.7%	$9.6
tonyp22	Yes	36.23	12.3%	$4.3
Swift Orbit A9BF	Yes	35.12	29.6%	$10
rizaSZN	Yes	34	30.8%	$10.2
walkwithyourboy	Yes	33.96	0.0%	$0
PPMT	Yes	30	4.2%	$1.26
Bewitched-Conspirator	Yes	26.09	23.7%	$6
Kabo987	Yes	25	7.6%	$1.84
Nardo99	Yes	25	31.0%	$7.75
frontiertrade	Yes	25	6.0%	$1.5
huaoe	Yes	23.81	21.7%	$5
malarkey33	Yes	23.77	21.7%	$5
iuH1398SI	Yes	23.46	31.0%	$7.27
ZePeba	Yes	20.2	25.5%	$5
58f4dhg1f854h	Yes	20	18.0%	$3.6
dfjjidfgn	Yes	20	18.0%	$3.6
d56fg165df1g	Yes	20	18.0%	$3.6
fd54g15fdg41	Yes	20	18.0%	$3.6
Royal Comet 3DA3	Yes	20	19.0%	$3.8
fgh5fg45hj41fg	Yes	20	18.0%	$3.6
fgh1fg65	Yes	20	21.0%	$4.2
51hg54fd1h	Yes	20	18.0%	$3.6
sd65af15s6d	Yes	20	18.0%	$3.6
jfkjdfj3	Yes	20	0.1%	$0.02
58f4dhg1f854h	No	20	79.0%	$15.8
dfjjidfgn	No	20	79.0%	$15.8
d56fg165df1g	No	20	79.0%	$15.8
fd54g15fdg41	No	20	79.0%	$15.8
fgh5fg45hj41fg	No	20	79.0%	$15.8
51hg54fd1h	No	20	79.0%	$15.8
sd65af15s6d	No	20	79.0%	$15.8
tantanE	Yes	16.99	12.2%	$2
watcher7	Yes	15.71	31.9%	$4.87
Interesting-Religion	Yes	12.5	8.3%	$1
louj75018	Yes	12	24.7%	$2.88
Exhausted-Missile	Yes	11.54	26.8%	$3
O5k4r	Yes	11.11	18.6%	$2
tradingjoe19	No	10.12	98.0%	$9.91
unclefei028	Yes	10	14.5%	$1.4
Valuable-Pump	Yes	8.33	24.7%	$2
Silky-Physics	Yes	8	30.8%	$2.4
anonymousey	Yes	6.25	31.9%	$1.94
Azure Scout DB34	Yes	6	17.0%	$1.02
Dr.PNL	Yes	5.11	1.9%	$0.1
Ellizory	Yes	5	36.9%	$1.8
rockscorpio	Yes	4.35	10.0%	$0.44
jenendiic834	Yes	4.35	23.7%	$1
Silver Raven 9A80	No	4.34	93.5%	$4
Coral Signal 697C	Yes	4.13	31.0%	$1.28
gxgrdvdhrd	No	3.5	66.9%	$2.31
Joyous-Bassoon	Yes	3.23	23.7%	$0.73
Halong	No	3.09	91.7%	$2.82
Frail-Parsnip	Yes	2.86	35.9%	$1
LolaBeni	Yes	2.63	38.9%	$1
hei2-258	Yes	1.42	1.3%	$0.02
charay12	Yes	1.04	24.7%	$0.25
ghostviolet	No	0.97	75.8%	$0.73
Pointed-Pronunciation	Yes	0.82	23.0%	$0.19
Standard-Thunderhead	No	0.7	70.0%	$0.49
richyee	Yes	0.66	0.7%	$0
rocky42011	No	0.65	91.5%	$0.6
Royal Atlas 3C9C	No	0.61	84.5%	$0.52
richyee	No	0.58	97.1%	$0.56
Cobalt Ledger CE60	No	0.58	69.8%	$0.4
monoclith	Yes	0.57	32.1%	$0.18
ghorrock	No	0.53	71.6%	$0.38
Podublin	Yes	0.5	18.0%	$0.09
Podublin	No	0.5	84.0%	$0.42
ppking2	No	0.45	82.0%	$0.37
hokinado	Yes	0.43	23.7%	$0.1
rocky42011	Yes	0.4	6.2%	$0.03
Juvenile-Mine	No	0.29	94.5%	$0.27
Pure-Hint	No	0.28	84.6%	$0.23
Cobalt Ledger CE60	Yes	0.25	32.9%	$0.08
79fsdfs	Yes	0.2	35.4%	$0.07
MacroStratFirm	No	0.17	84.5%	$0.14
macister83	No	0.11	84.0%	$0.09

170 of 170 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
aeo-aeo	$1.59K
Rigatonii	$530.29
mustard	$200

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