What is the “SBF released from custody in 2026?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: SBF released from custody in 2026? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 2.4¢ and No at 97.6¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 2.4% for Yes and 97.6% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($1.02) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($9.16K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 297 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 61.8% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 19, 8:27 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

SBF released from custody in 2026? | Polymarket odds & analytics

beta

Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

SBF released from custody in 2026? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencesbf-released-from-custody-in-2026Updated just now

cryptoActive

Closes Jan 1, 2027politicscrypto

Yes

2.4%

97.6%

Buy Yes 2.4¢Buy No 97.6¢

24h Volume

Liquidity

$9.2K

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Yes price

2.4¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

2.4%

97.6%

24h volume

$1.02

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 2.4¢

Open in terminal$1.02 24h vol

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

2m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

0.6%

Observed

just now

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

2.4%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

297

Wallets

297

Top 10 share

62%

Yes / No shares

51.74K / 51.74K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

277

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
aangelika	No	17.05K	89.4%	$17.05K
Tilton-Research	No	10K	87.0%	$10K

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “SBF released from custody in 2026?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: SBF released from custody in 2026? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 2.4¢ and No at 97.6¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 2.4% for Yes and 97.6% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($1.02) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($9.16K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
aangelika	$16.64K
Tilton-Research	$9.76K
Anjun	$6.11K
Lasting-Dessert	$4.88K
4751346	$3.87K
javarisjavarjavarisonlamar	$2.93K
Keen Oracle 60E1	$1.46K
bifurcatio	$1.15K
Elias.Thornwell	$459.67
Solar Raven A90C	$343.09
Wan-Guava	$289.96
ttwong1	$126.43