Analytics
Yes is at 2.3%, down 8.2 points from 10.5% when the market opened on 25 Feb 2026.
Across the 216 daily closes on record from 25 Feb 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 13.5% on 2 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1.3% on 11 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.1%; a month before, 1.8%.
$468.24K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $4.45K, with a 2.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is ImJustKen with 4.9K shares; the largest No position is aangelika with 17K. Ten wallets hold 61.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 7:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 216 points, 25 Feb 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | 10.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 2.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| aangelika | No | 17.05K |
| xcnstrategy | No | 10K |
| Anjun | No | 6.26K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026
| Lasting-Dessert |
| No |
| 5K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 4.91K |
| Fred2 | Yes | 4.09K |
| debious273 | Yes | 3.84K |
| Nadmi | Yes | 3.53K |
| Untimely-Removal | Yes | 3.44K |
| javarisjavarjavarisonlamar | No | 3K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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