What is the “DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “DeepSeek V4 released by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 16 Mar 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

320 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Apr 17, 11:21 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/deepseek-v4-released-by-march-31) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?

Market referencedeepseek-v4-released-by-march-15-678Updated Apr 17, 2026 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Mar 16, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 16, 2026 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Aug 13, 2026 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Apr 17, 2026 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

320

Wallets

320

Top 10 share

68%

Yes / No shares

207.1K / 412.42

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

284

Loaded notional

$47.59K

No sell at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Mar 15, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-39 pts

Range

0.8% - 71.5%

Feb 11, 12:00 AM UTC to Mar 15, 12:00 AM UTC

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Hoarse-Pat	Yes	29.97K	1.0%	$29.97K	Mar 13, 8:06 AM UTC
Wasserhous	Yes	20.15K	26.3%

DeepSeek V4 released by...?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “DeepSeek V4 released by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 16 Mar 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

Hoarse-Pat

Yes

29.97K

1.0%

$29.97K

Mar 13, 8:06 AM UTC

Wasserhous

Yes

20.15K

26.3%

Trader	Current holding value
lmatz823	$229.03
Frightening-Moment	$150.63
Vain-Marble	$16.13
Light-Incident	$6.33
Normal-Wind	$3.45
en36985	$1.41
mookir89	$1.16
Attached-Chow	$1.14
riyos	$1.14
Harrowquell	$1.01
barry89	$1
Hoarse-Pat	$0