Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.2%. Yes opened at 85% on 14 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 75 daily closes on record from 14 Jan 2026 to 29 Mar 2026, the highest close was 94.5% on 2 Feb 2026 and the lowest 1.5% on 28 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 11.5% on 15 Mar 2026. $620.39K traded over the market's life.
288 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 11:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 75 points, 14 Jan 2026 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | 85.0% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 1.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| fvckingbot | Yes | 16.45K |
| Frightening-Moment | Yes | 13.41K |
| Lasercat3977 | Yes | 9.56K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public. The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/deepseek-v4-released-by-march-31
| Yes |
| 9.25K |
| Wise-Dad | Yes | 5.29K |
| Competent-Simple | Yes | 3.25K |
| alphawinbet | Yes | 2.32K |
| Sorrowful-Comfortable | Yes | 2.27K |
| aut0m8 | Yes | 2.22K |
| DonAntimatter | Yes | 2.17K |
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