Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 50% on 20 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 20 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 50% on 20 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 8% on 21 Jan 2026. $9.47K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 11:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 20 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 747 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 703 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 389 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 249 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public. The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/deepseek-v4-released-by-march-31
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 159 |
| chtiout | Yes | 99.99 |
| AFFYONK | Yes | 50 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 30 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 23 |
| vger7 | Yes | 20 |
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