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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 15K | $0.526 | $2.02K | -$5.87K |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 41.38 | $0.290 | $12 | 9d ago |
|
| Yes |
| 19.71K |
| $0.182 |
| $1.28K |
| -$2.32K |
 US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Yes | 2.48K | $0.290 | $235.48 | -$484.51 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | No | 1.32K | $0.180 | $177.75 | -$59.25 |
 Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 178.3 | $0.478 | $155.12 | +$69.9 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | 3.22K | $0.120 | $140.13 | -$246.44 |
 Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 1.52K | $0.021 | $69.98 | +$38.03 |
 Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 142.22 | $0.907 | $40.53 | -$88.47 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 387.59 | $0.130 | $29.07 | -$21.32 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | Yes | 1.86K | $0.018 | $25.07 | -$8.93 |
 Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | No | 60.49 | $0.727 | $22.78 | -$21.22 |
 Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on December 31? | Yes | 35 | $0.090 | $14.7 | +$11.55 |
 Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? | No | 12.92 | $0.696 | $11.05 | +$2.05 |
 Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 18.27 | $0.323 | $4.48 | -$1.42 |
 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 2.63K | $0.005 | $3.95 | -$9.05 |
 Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes | 112.36 | $0.089 | $3.43 | -$6.57 |
 Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31? | Yes | 9 | $0.081 | $1.66 | +$0.93 |
 Will Meta have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 147.99 | $0.004 | $0.44 | -$0.16 |
 US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? | Yes | 5 | $0.300 | $0.43 | -$1.08 |
| buy |
| 22.68 |
| $0.441 |
| $10 |
| 9d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes | sell | 4K | $0.001 | $4.06 | 9d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Yes | buy | 1.86K | $0.018 | $34 | 9d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No | buy | 1.32K | $0.180 | $237 | 9d ago |
 Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No | buy | 459.28 | $0.997 | $458 | 13d ago |
 Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 74.16 | $0.890 | $66 | 20d ago |
 US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?Yes | buy | 206.59 | $0.726 | $150.04 | 21d ago |
| Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 12.92 | $0.696 | $9 | 21d ago |
 Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.24K | $0.073 | $90 | Aug 6, 2026 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?No | buy | 499.99 | $0.340 | $170 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 1.71K | $0.006 | $10 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 22.27K | $0.002 | $55 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Meta have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 117.55 | $0.005 | $0.56 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Meta have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 147.99 | $0.004 | $0.6 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 209.88 | $0.024 | $5 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Meta be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 37.1 | $0.027 | $1 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Meta be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 1.12K | $0.003 | $3.6 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 183.31 | $0.005 | $1 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 US strike on Colombia by December 31?Yes | sell | 243.13 | $0.220 | $53.49 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes | sell | 1.73K | $0.020 | $34.56 | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | sell | 125K | $0.190 | $23.75K | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 3?No | buy | 34.7 | $0.240 | $8.33 | Aug 4, 2026 |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?No | buy | 95.83 | $0.720 | $69 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?No | buy | 95.83 | $0.720 | $69 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?No | buy | 95.83 | $0.720 | $69 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?No | buy | 7.58 | $0.660 | $5 | Jul 28, 2026 |
 Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 23.2 | $0.862 | $20 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No | sell | 12 | $0.794 | $9.52 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 17.38 | $0.978 | $17 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No | buy | 13.63 | $0.954 | $13 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 67.86 | $0.914 | $62 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No | buy | 36.93 | $0.190 | $7 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No | buy | 12.5 | $0.160 | $2 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No | buy | 257.14 | $0.140 | $36 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 632.32 | $0.316 | $200 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Yes | sell | 83.99 | $0.880 | $73.91 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.04 | $0.710 | $5 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 30.53 | $0.655 | $20 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No | sell | 47.12 | $0.405 | $19.08 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No | buy | 65.85 | $0.410 | $27 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No | buy | 31.81 | $0.990 | $31.49 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 46.42 | $0.103 | $4.77 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No | buy | 27.27 | $0.990 | $27 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 76.16 | $0.255 | $19.4 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Yes | buy | 302.76 | $0.935 | $283 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Yes | buy | 570.46 | $0.284 | $162.14 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Yes | buy | 2.63K | $0.152 | $400 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will LeBron James play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27?Yes | buy | 5K | $0.001 | $5 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.300 | $1.5 | Jul 22, 2026 |