Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

politicsResolved

No, settled Oct 5, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$4.0M

Resolved

Settled

Oct 5, 2026 UTC

Topic roomBrazil Election 2026 World elections

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	10.82M	0.0%	$0
timetowander	Yes	784.74K	3.1%	$24.52K	Sep 5, 8:11 AM UTC
Remote-Testing	Yes	597.18K	0.0%	$0
user290	Yes	290K	0.2%	$520.36	Sep 11, 5:39 AM UTC
debased	Yes	225.37K	0.0%	$0
bermantrader	Yes	223.61K	0.5%	$1.14K
Silver Falcon DA96	Yes	200K	0.6%	$1.23K
Trim-Trowel	Yes	183.79K	1.6%	$2.96K
dragunis	Yes	155K	0.2%	$284.05
ProfessionalPunter	Yes	120.82K	3.1%	$3.78K
Substantial-Service	Yes	120.32K	3.1%	$3.76K
kneelbeforetheking	Yes	106K	3.1%	$3.31K	Sep 11, 6:09 PM UTC
Enraged-Afterthought	Yes	94.3K	0.2%	$188.52
Cobalt Atlas A4C2	Yes	94.14K	3.1%	$2.94K	Sep 5, 3:17 PM UTC
Eduglower	Yes	93.2K	2.3%	$2.14K
Davizera2012	Yes	93.19K	0.4%	$386.54
e46m3	Yes	89.47K	3.1%	$2.8K	Sep 9, 7:29 PM UTC
Bigggggggg	Yes	72.65K	0.0%	$0	Sep 8, 8:31 AM UTC
Godzilla1	Yes	71.27K	0.1%	$107.23	Sep 10, 4:46 PM UTC
balthazar	Yes	69.93K	3.1%	$2.19K	Sep 9, 8:05 PM UTC
aqvinas	Yes	64.32K	1.1%	$694.58
Thug4	Yes	63K	0.3%	$179.95
forgotmydinner	Yes	61.85K	0.0%	$0
neutralwave23	Yes	59.56K	0.2%	$127.88	Sep 4, 8:57 PM UTC
alex20011	Yes	57.76K	3.1%	$1.8K
Giddy-Conversation	Yes	56.93K	1.0%	$529.38
NyetRisk	Yes	56.55K	0.0%	$0	Sep 9, 8:29 PM UTC
Lirakis	Yes	48.71K	1.4%	$662.55
kingg	Yes	37.71K	0.2%	$75.39
jurassikpark	Yes	34.9K	0.2%	$75.42	Sep 5, 5:49 PM UTC
Submissive-Refusal	Yes	34.46K	0.4%	$119.87	Sep 4, 10:58 PM UTC
8DDD	Yes	33.85K	0.0%	$0
kaxel78	Yes	33.85K	3.1%	$1.06K
UMAisawesome	Yes	31K	1.8%	$573.65
pd.unique	Yes	30.21K	3.1%	$944.12
Cookedtan	Yes	29.61K	0.0%	$0
JohnnyTenNumbers	Yes	29.28K	1.6%	$472.31
ca112	Yes	29.03K	1.2%	$348.39
WarriorH	Yes	28.08K	3.1%	$877.48	Sep 11, 11:10 AM UTC
lissartter	Yes	28.06K	3.1%	$876.88
FiatUno	Yes	27.61K	0.2%	$60.83	Sep 4, 6:45 PM UTC
RSAD	Yes	25.82K	0.4%	$88.92	Sep 6, 1:19 PM UTC
Euphemism	Yes	25.11K	1.9%	$475.22
akroll	Yes	24.68K	3.1%	$771.25
anoin123	Yes	24.54K	0.0%	$0
EternalObl1vion	Yes	24.26K	1.8%	$438
krollersm	Yes	21.4K	0.2%	$49.09
Ruddy-Cabin-Quest	Yes	20.52K	0.7%	$137.33
pollo07	Yes	20.12K	3.1%	$628.61
Complete-Ecosystem	Yes	20K	0.1%	$19.98	Sep 10, 12:00 PM UTC
cry.eth2	Yes	19.59K	1.7%	$337.87
HerrieDavis	Yes	19.2K	3.1%	$600.03
zerone777	Yes	19.08K	3.1%	$596.36
Novus0rdoSeclorum	Yes	17.78K	3.1%	$555.74
Turbulent-Decline-Router	Yes	17.72K	0.0%	$0
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	15.71K	0.0%	$0
didixxpol	Yes	15.02K	0.3%	$50.52
Hourglass	Yes	14.67K	3.1%	$458.33	Sep 6, 12:13 PM UTC
mildwindow27	Yes	14.58K	0.0%	$0	Sep 9, 6:49 PM UTC
poposub	Yes	14.36K	0.0%	$0
punxrise	Yes	14.36K	0.8%	$109.15
Dotado	Yes	14.34K	0.7%	$100.37
beta9	Yes	14.26K	0.2%	$26.98
flow-trader-at-optiver	Yes	14.15K	0.0%	$0
iamhungry	Yes	14.1K	1.9%	$273.85
i18z	Yes	14.07K	3.1%	$439.66
RobXK	Yes	13.28K	2.7%	$360.97
Likaseent	Yes	13.11K	3.1%	$409.81
Vale54holi	Yes	12.28K	3.1%	$383.85
Large-Tradition	Yes	11.86K	1.0%	$117.1
xhxtxh	Yes	11.11K	0.9%	$99.99
MARCALMAXI	Yes	11.04K	0.9%	$94.99
Carecainsano7	Yes	10.2K	1.8%	$175.98
ox3b7ed1242417f4b8f6992b5dd53aa9415a2c23eb	Yes	10K	0.1%	$9.99	Oct 2, 2:14 PM UTC
HopeBD	Yes	10K	1.0%	$100
jason009	Yes	10K	0.1%	$9.99	Oct 1, 11:01 AM UTC
CaDBhZ	Yes	9.52K	1.0%	$95.92
vfbatist	Yes	9.31K	1.9%	$173.08
Johnsansculotte	Yes	9.23K	0.4%	$33.93
Humble-Monk	Yes	9.2K	0.0%	$0
vitorloures	Yes	8.95K	1.2%	$100
mustbethewater	Yes	8.67K	3.1%	$267.72
peepeepooppoop	Yes	8.49K	3.1%	$265.45
omgggggs	Yes	8.47K	1.1%	$91.22
mfrancodec	Yes	8.45K	2.1%	$179.38
Starch	Yes	8.38K	1.6%	$135.23
rafaeldays	Yes	8.05K	1.2%	$90.73
justapredictionguy	Yes	7.78K	0.6%	$46.66
Maisena	Yes	7.5K	0.2%	$14.99
klli27	Yes	7.37K	3.1%	$230.34
fourcoin15m	Yes	7.27K	3.1%	$227.16
Biosdrf1	Yes	7.21K	1.4%	$98.06
JordanMooney	Yes	7.18K	3.1%	$224.07
Shy-Note	Yes	6.81K	3.1%	$212.79
GingerMcKenna	Yes	6.71K	3.1%	$209.45
LynxTitan	Yes	6.49K	3.1%	$202.78
merod	Yes	6.18K	3.1%	$193.16
Siziriv	Yes	6.16K	3.1%	$192.5
Neon Meteor 019E	Yes	6K	0.1%	$5.99	Sep 22, 3:42 PM UTC
rspa	Yes	5.6K	1.2%	$63.28
cwc909	Yes	5.55K	1.6%	$89.52
k1tten	Yes	5.47K	0.0%	$0
Familiar-Blackbird	Yes	5.28K	1.0%	$52.68
Amber Falcon BDA4	Yes	5K	0.1%	$5	Oct 1, 1:47 AM UTC
betsruno	Yes	5K	0.3%	$15
LamFao	Yes	4.86K	0.3%	$14.87
EdwardLewis	Yes	4.69K	3.2%	$150.4
zedoboi	Yes	4.68K	1.0%	$45.52
SpringlyFawl	Yes	4.5K	3.1%	$140.75
mabtrader	Yes	4.5K	1.2%	$53.79
diadjaid	Yes	4.5K	3.1%	$140.63
coracaovalente	Yes	4.41K	0.1%	$4.41
coali10	Yes	4.38K	0.0%	$0
Hasty-Clipboard-Trout	Yes	3.76K	0.3%	$10
YYV	Yes	3.7K	0.0%	$0
mlferker	Yes	3.62K	0.0%	$0
shine	Yes	3.57K	3.2%	$114.15
Petty-Impala	Yes	3.52K	1.4%	$45.71
NoMoreMister	Yes	3.45K	3.2%	$110.44
Bony-Raiment	Yes	3.39K	1.2%	$40
rated	Yes	3.24K	2.9%	$93.51
Vicious-Expression-Classification	Yes	3.05K	0.5%	$15.25
goodyguy	Yes	3K	0.8%	$22.64
Willianwrv	Yes	2.93K	0.8%	$23.21
YouSayUpISayDown	Yes	2.9K	3.1%	$90.55
lllanon0001	Yes	2.79K	0.8%	$22.3
mahdoid	Yes	2.67K	0.3%	$8
bernardi22	Yes	2.5K	0.2%	$5
.moar.766Dd-94077Cc94527BC6	Yes	2.5K	3.1%	$78.12
Unused-Flour	Yes	2.46K	0.4%	$9.99
mp8	Yes	2.39K	0.8%	$19.15
Perfect-Neighbourhood	Yes	2.27K	3.1%	$71.03
mymacbook	Yes	2.12K	0.0%	$0
Amber Scout 2EDA	Yes	2K	0.1%	$2	Sep 14, 5:35 PM UTC
123987456	Yes	1.98K	3.1%	$61.72
korda77	Yes	1.9K	3.1%	$59.3
avengers2357avengers	Yes	1.88K	3.1%	$58.69
Daniel.Wang	Yes	1.82K	3.1%	$56.45
Tee1000	Yes	1.8K	2.3%	$41.88
LR1	Yes	1.8K	1.5%	$27.61
V.s.p	Yes	1.53K	0.6%	$9
Volive	Yes	1.5K	0.2%	$3
failedinlifelole	Yes	1.49K	0.7%	$10
win-at-all-cost	Yes	1.35K	0.0%	$0
AyanamixxR	Yes	1.33K	0.3%	$3.4
kaitemo	Yes	1.29K	0.1%	$1.77	Sep 6, 5:47 PM UTC
andrade62	Yes	1.2K	1.0%	$12
BohdanI	Yes	1.16K	0.0%	$0
ACara	Yes	1.15K	0.4%	$4.59	Sep 4, 8:51 PM UTC
baE92E7959377B18Fd63b772C74147724E0.E7475	Yes	1.13K	3.1%	$35.31
GrokEnjoyer	Yes	1.11K	3.1%	$34.72
gtxrt	Yes	1.1K	1.0%	$11
haveagoodday	Yes	1.09K	3.1%	$34.01
Baddie	Yes	1.05K	1.6%	$16.94
newmasterroshi	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1
dianjingshigou	Yes	1K	0.2%	$2
Royal Orbit BBF7	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Sep 18, 12:36 AM UTC
Rapid Voyager 266E	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Oct 1, 7:24 PM UTC
Lunar Raven 9D0E	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Oct 2, 5:29 AM UTC
TeaLover	Yes	1K	1.8%	$18.52
Bold Raven 7CF8	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Sep 30, 9:42 AM UTC
HappyFett	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Sep 5, 1:14 AM UTC
Solar Kestrel 0A74	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Oct 1, 4:45 AM UTC
0xBulzeeb	Yes	1K	0.5%	$5
Tenebrus7	Yes	921.28	3.1%	$28.79
itsjustcheddar	Yes	860	3.1%	$26.87
Athletic-Manager	Yes	822.72	1.9%	$15.39
0xReb94dd51ee240ce157787b87ff2e0a639db1-43	Yes	800.67	3.1%	$25.02
Kevin-Warsh	Yes	758.6	3.1%	$23.71
rickye	Yes	740	0.7%	$5.18
Bitcoin1MBRL	Yes	705.67	0.6%	$4.44
fireponbabylon	Yes	701.1	1.6%	$11.12
Ove22	Yes	700	3.1%	$21.88
Silver Raven B802	Yes	687	3.1%	$21.47
Valid-Encirclement	Yes	626	1.9%	$11.5
El-Coronel	Yes	600	1.7%	$10.16
Bright Harbor 4690	Yes	590.56	1.0%	$5.58
Untrue-Centurion	Yes	588	1.0%	$5.88
Harmless-Gesture	Yes	573.11	0.9%	$5
Ainocry.	Yes	568.91	3.1%	$17.78
hellokittyhellokitty	Yes	560	0.0%	$0
products	Yes	541.66	0.0%	$0
niuweiqi	Yes	525	0.2%	$1.05
Elias.Thornwell	Yes	525	0.2%	$1.05
Nopopo	Yes	525	0.2%	$1.05
Darling-Eurocentrism-Stepbrother	Yes	510.37	0.2%	$1.02	Sep 8, 10:31 PM UTC
brunomedm	Yes	500	1.1%	$5.5
D2sa	Yes	500	0.8%	$4
Stupendous-Marines	Yes	500	0.6%	$3
sciuboi	Yes	500	3.1%	$15.63
paspor	Yes	489.66	3.1%	$15.3
81dgd	Yes	465.2	0.1%	$0.47	Sep 4, 6:26 PM UTC
Lavincey	Yes	452.74	0.1%	$0.45
chyzlem	Yes	443.63	0.2%	$0.89
hineskaren	Yes	422	0.2%	$0.84	Sep 4, 6:51 PM UTC
maquinadotempo	Yes	399.71	0.8%	$3.12	Sep 4, 7:30 PM UTC
PiEDawg	Yes	384.03	3.1%	$12
NoLoyaltyToTheBosses	Yes	364.44	0.0%	$0
Valuebettor	Yes	359.15	3.1%	$11.22
Rafaelusbr	Yes	357.14	0.7%	$2.5
nryy	Yes	348.94	0.0%	$0
Hjklm	Yes	333.58	3.1%	$10.42
Frozen-Morning	Yes	317.78	0.9%	$2.86
Attached-Prairie	Yes	300	0.1%	$0.3
scotsban	Yes	265.52	3.1%	$8.3
Tricky-Overload	Yes	250	0.0%	$0
username-is-not-taken	Yes	237	3.2%	$7.61
clutchdaddy	Yes	201	0.0%	$0
TonyChao	Yes	200	1.0%	$2
pp101	Yes	200	0.1%	$0.2
deezytrading	Yes	200	0.0%	$0
FreeCityIndividual	Yes	199.99	3.1%	$6.25
BoflosTonozoi	Yes	166.25	0.8%	$1.33
Azure Comet B6BD	Yes	161.31	0.0%	$0
a5tthsyuo3c	Yes	158.07	2.8%	$4.36
duque1	Yes	157.99	0.7%	$1
TyesAlexSol	Yes	157	0.8%	$1.26
Deafening-Possible	Yes	150	0.1%	$0.15
0x3948jdk97h75g	Yes	150	3.1%	$4.69
pp155	Yes	144.64	2.7%	$3.86
LesterDiamond	Yes	125.16	3.1%	$3.4
Aged-Cheer-Afoul	Yes	125	0.8%	$1
Brany011	Yes	125	0.8%	$1	Sep 4, 8:20 PM UTC
tf2132	Yes	125	0.8%	$1
flylevince99	Yes	110.03	3.0%	$3.26
Lunar Tide 00C3	Yes	104.65	0.0%	$0
Loyal-Aggression	Yes	102	0.0%	$0
gmgmgmgmg	Yes	100.1	0.0%	$0	Sep 9, 8:10 PM UTC
182guilherme	Yes	100	1.0%	$1
yy4955	Yes	100	1.0%	$1
CT-GabaINV	Yes	100	0.0%	$0
RAJUCHACHA1020	Yes	100	1.1%	$1.1
ma99	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
Vetal001	Yes	100	3.1%	$3.13
akunai	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
AheadArbitrage	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.15
Lunar Comet 841A	Yes	100	0.6%	$0.6
JoE	Yes	99.4	0.0%	$0
nella-officiis	Yes	98.78	0.0%	$0
Sm1	Yes	97.1	2.1%	$2.1
quarkie	Yes	90	3.1%	$2.81
kunsect77	Yes	84.97	3.1%	$2.66
andersonangela	Yes	78	0.2%	$0.16
mapleggg	Yes	75.92	3.1%	$2.37
vamosgaming	Yes	75	3.1%	$2.34
Amber Horizon 6EB5	Yes	70	2.7%	$1.89
jennylulu2016	Yes	62	1.6%	$1
gamblingbling	Yes	56	2.6%	$1.46
GutoGalego	Yes	50	1.4%	$0.71
montty	Yes	50	0.0%	$0
.Menthe	Yes	50	0.1%	$0.05
justarandomaccount	Yes	50	0.0%	$0
RidelFishing	Yes	49.99	0.0%	$0
larrylarry1	Yes	46.42	0.0%	$0
d5BDa0A44B659581	Yes	43.98	2.0%	$0.88
BikesAreTheBikes	Yes	42.07	3.1%	$1.31
Misty Scout 150A	Yes	40	0.0%	$0
ontouch	Yes	40	3.1%	$1.25
yzhaobk	Yes	40	0.0%	$0
nrnn	Yes	32.98	0.0%	$0
sleNti	Yes	31.75	0.0%	$0
jjej	Yes	30	0.0%	$0
BigFishSushiChief	Yes	27	0.0%	$0
Vincent123	Yes	25.02	3.2%	$0.8
nonetouch	Yes	25	0.0%	$0
Pestle	Yes	24	1.7%	$0.41
Loose-Spirituality	Yes	22.75	0.0%	$0
shukicarpenter	Yes	22.48	0.0%	$0
Golden Sphinx AB2F	Yes	21	1.3%	$0.28
hard	Yes	20.01	1.1%	$0.22
worldcrypto	Yes	20	3.1%	$0.63
Bold Beacon 1532	Yes	20	0.0%	$0
OsmarVado	Yes	20	1.7%	$0.34
TurtleFlair	Yes	20	3.1%	$0.63
wankerjoesleeper	Yes	20	0.0%	$0
Pollyna	Yes	18	0.0%	$0
miyavr	Yes	15.13	3.1%	$0.48
Clear-Sleep	Yes	15.06	3.1%	$0.46
daiquiri	Yes	15	0.0%	$0
Ethical-Bamboo	Yes	14	0.1%	$0.01
MrAndMsClaude	Yes	14	3.1%	$0.44
Ivory Quasar 70A8	Yes	14	0.1%	$0.01
yanli	No	12.01	99.9%	$12
babyalgo	Yes	10	1.6%	$0.16
mugmug	Yes	10	3.1%	$0.31
Jzhang21	Yes	10	3.1%	$0.31
sinesimd.1	Yes	10	1.6%	$0.16
sd4f5g67h8j9	Yes	10	2.4%	$0.24
Neon Raven 6F6D	Yes	10	0.0%	$0
ElonButler	Yes	10	1.6%	$0.16
test456y78	Yes	10	1.6%	$0.16
Fat-Wall	Yes	10	3.1%	$0.31
ElectionBetter1234	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
testcashmaker	Yes	10	0.0%	$0
yes-yes-no	Yes	10	3.1%	$0.31
a5533	Yes	9.99	0.2%	$0.02
svoter	Yes	8.65	3.1%	$0.27
w2b0bad8	Yes	7	0.0%	$0
3-mil-on-tour	Yes	6	1.6%	$0.1
Sleepy-Cactus	Yes	6	0.1%	$0.01
luminae	Yes	5.67	3.1%	$0.18
Endymion	Yes	5.13	0.0%	$0
Unique-Index	Yes	5	0.0%	$0
klankerdude	Yes	5	3.1%	$0.16
BillyTheBot	Yes	5	0.0%	$0
denso	Yes	5	1.6%	$0.08
lidongyao	Yes	5	1.6%	$0.08
Poised-Rivulet	Yes	5	3.1%	$0.16
White-Donkey	Yes	3.38	0.0%	$0
BuyTheDip007	Yes	2.5	3.1%	$0.08
Bright Beacon B904	Yes	2	1.6%	$0.03
Late-Favorite	Yes	1.96	1.6%	$0.03
Erses	Yes	1.82	1.8%	$0.03
mao01	Yes	1.17	1.6%	$0.02
melonmanm	Yes	1	3.1%	$0.03
FluminenseFC	Yes	1	3.2%	$0.03
titango	Yes	1	0.0%	$0
ox9614b59508B11504bDA8Ac4FDFBEFc2f92d8D217	No	0.99	99.9%	$0.99	Sep 5, 10:06 AM UTC
thdfhdrt	Yes	0.51	2.4%	$0.01
jkk373ppHt	No	0.46	99.4%	$0.46	Sep 22, 6:40 PM UTC
PPMBR	Yes	0.2	1.6%	$0
BusinessMan1220	Yes	0.13	0.3%	$0	Sep 7, 2:41 AM UTC

322 of 322 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$10.82M
yanli	$12.01
ox9614b59508B11504bDA8Ac4FDFBEFc2f92d8D217	$0.99

Topic room

Read this market in context

Brazil Election 2026 oddsWho will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
World elections oddsWhat do prediction markets say about the next national elections?

Research behind the numbers

Brazil Election 2026: runoff, polls, odds and results
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Brazil election polls vs Polymarket odds: what the numbers mean
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
Brazil election results 2026: when counting starts and where to check
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.

Analytics