What is the “Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Feb 28, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($1.41M) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 246 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 67.6% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Mar 2, 8:25 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-tariffs-generate-250b-in-2025) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? | Polymarket odds & analytics

Vultaxbeta

Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencewill-tariffs-generate-250b-in-2025Updated Mar 2, 2026

Closed

Scheduled close Feb 28, 2026

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Observed Yes 0¢Observed No 100¢

24h Volume

$1.4M

Scheduled close

Feb 28, 2026

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Mar 2, 2026

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Mar 2, 2026

This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

0.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

246

Wallets

246

Top 10 share

68%

Yes / No shares

207.57K / 606.18

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

190

Loaded notional

Reported market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
theunknownG	Yes	86.93K	11.2%	$86.93K
General-Subway	Yes	21.93K	4.4%	$21.93K

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Feb 28, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($1.41M) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
jtklein	$232.94
DMC-906	$150
Bold Horizon 6D3D	$41.44
oddoneout	$39.68
maxwerywell	$26.01
Pollybots	$20
Golden Harbor 06F6	$15.73
Crimson Falcon 8B6D	$10.02
Golden Voyager 3724	$10
Ivory Orbit BD61	$7.94
boobooiner	$7.14
QuickWave905	$7