Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 33% on 16 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 321 daily closes on record from 16 Apr 2025 to 1 Mar 2026, the highest close was 33% on 16 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 27 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 30% on 29 May 2025. $1.41M traded over the market's life.
296 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 321 points, 16 Apr 2025 – 1 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Apr 2025 | 33.0% |
| 1 Mar 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| theunknownG | Yes | 86.93K |
| General-Subway | Yes | 21.93K |
| Shoddy-Instance | Yes | 7.42K |
The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-tariffs-generate-250b-in-2025
| Solar Comet 5A10 | Yes | 5K |
| Amber Maven 1D51 | Yes | 3.66K |
| xlefgerx | Yes | 3.29K |
| Solar Maven 1221 | Yes | 3.21K |
| doctordiesel | Yes | 3.19K |
| Robpullham | Yes | 3.18K |
| Silver Raven 7E85 | Yes | 3.03K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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