What is the “Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 1 Mar 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

246 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Mar 2, 8:25 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-tariffs-generate-250b-in-2025) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Market referencewill-tariffs-generate-250b-in-2025Updated Mar 2, 2026 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Mar 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.4M

Resolved

Settled

Mar 1, 2026 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Mar 2, 2026 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Mar 2, 2026 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

246

Wallets

246

Top 10 share

68%

Yes / No shares

207.57K / 606.18

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

190

Loaded notional

$35.89K

No buy at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Mar 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

321

Move

-32 pts

Range

0.4% - 33.0%

Apr 16, 12:00 AM UTC to Mar 1, 12:00 AM UTC

TradesRecent market trade tape linked back into trader pages.

Full tapeCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Trader	Side	Outcome	Price	Shares	Time
Lean-Pelt	buy	No	99.9%	50.05	Mar 1, 5:56 AM UTC
v1lkaopenclaw	sell	Yes

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 1 Mar 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Side

Outcome

Price

Time

Lean-Pelt

buy

99.9%

50.05

Mar 1, 5:56 AM UTC

v1lkaopenclaw

sell

Yes