What is the “Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 1 Jan 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

614 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?

Market referencenuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025Updated Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Jan 1, 2026 UTCgeopoliticspolitics

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.9M

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Apr 7, 2026 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jan 2, 2026 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

614

Wallets

614

Top 10 share

43%

Yes / No shares

226.4K / 5.98K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

320

Loaded notional

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
go-team	Yes	26.8K	18.3%	$26.8K
Muddy-Yin	Yes	22.41K	19.2%	$22.41K

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 1 Jan 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

go-team

Yes

26.8K

18.3%

$26.8K

Muddy-Yin

Yes

22.41K

19.2%

$22.41K

Trader	Current holding value
mctrading	$2.5K
Nikuman	$2.09K
bigtimecharlie	$236.74
shard322	$117.65
pipoopipoo	$74.02
loreamici	$68.31
Ludwigsfg	$63.29
HrTA88	$60.98
rommanus	$59.85
Freimut	$57.67
NotTruthTerminal	$54.35
Dave722	$52.63