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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 18?Yes | buy | 15.94 | $0.094 | $1.5 | 27d ago |
 |
| buy |
| 33.33 |
| $0.060 |
| $2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes | sell | 6.25 | $0.041 | $0.26 | Aug 12, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on August 12?Yes | sell | 3.13 | $0.410 | $1.28 | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on August 12?Yes | sell | 3.12 | $0.270 | $0.84 | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on August 12?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.160 | $1 | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 11?Yes | sell | 6.25 | $0.230 | $1.44 | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 11?Yes | sell | 6.25 | $0.150 | $0.94 | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 11?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.080 | $1 | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.160 | $1 | Aug 6, 2026 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?No | sell | 3.84 | $0.750 | $2.88 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?No | buy | 3.85 | $0.260 | $1 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?Yes | buy | 3.33 | $0.300 | $1 | Aug 3, 2026 |
 Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings?No | buy | 3.33 | $0.300 | $1 | Aug 3, 2026 |
 Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Yes | sell | 2.32 | $0.840 | $1.95 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in July?No | sell | 2.63 | $0.760 | $2 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in July?No | buy | 2.63 | $0.380 | $1 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Yes | buy | 2.33 | $0.430 | $1 | Jul 30, 2026 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 3.68 | $0.272 | $1 | Jul 28, 2026 |
 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes | sell | 4.06 | $0.771 | $3.13 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes | buy | 4.07 | $0.246 | $1 | Jul 22, 2026 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes | sell | 1.24 | $0.690 | $0.86 | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes | buy | 2.43 | $0.460 | $1.12 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboYes | sell | 9.05 | $0.110 | $1 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 17.86 | $0.056 | $1 | Mar 17, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?Yes | sell | 28.57 | $0.010 | $0.29 | Mar 17, 2026 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: DecemberNo | buy | 7.69 | $0.130 | $1 | Dec 24, 2025 |
 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?Yes | sell | 12.82 | $0.016 | $0.21 | Dec 24, 2025 |
 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?Yes | sell | 28.35 | $0.007 | $0.2 | Dec 24, 2025 |
 Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?Yes | sell | 18.86 | $0.011 | $0.2 | Dec 24, 2025 |
 Maduro in U.S. custody by December 31?Yes | sell | 30.3 | $0.008 | $0.24 | Dec 24, 2025 |
 US strikes Nigeria by December 31?Yes | sell | 15.87 | $0.022 | $0.35 | Dec 24, 2025 |
 Israel strikes Iran before 2026?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.018 | $0.36 | Dec 24, 2025 |
 Volodymyr Zelenskyy in jail by December 31?Yes | sell | 116.21 | $0.003 | $0.3 | Dec 24, 2025 |
 US forces in Venezuela by December 31?Yes | buy | 17.13 | $0.080 | $1.37 | Dec 11, 2025 |
 Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out in 2025?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.003 | $1 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out in 2025?Yes | buy | 15.87 | $0.063 | $1 | Dec 11, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?Yes | sell | 13.39 | $0.252 | $3.37 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboYes | buy | 9.05 | $0.190 | $1.72 | Dec 5, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear EditionNo | buy | 14.29 | $0.070 | $1 | Dec 5, 2025 |
 Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?Yes | buy | 33.33 | $0.030 | $1 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| US strikes Nigeria by December 31?Yes | buy | 15.87 | $0.063 | $1 | Dec 5, 2025 |
 Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.100 | $5 | Dec 5, 2025 |
 NATO downs another Russian drone by December 31?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.100 | $1 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy in jail by December 31?Yes | buy | 116.21 | $0.009 | $1 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Maduro in U.S. custody by December 31?Yes | buy | 30.3 | $0.033 | $1 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?Yes | buy | 18.87 | $0.053 | $1 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Israel strikes Iran before 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?Yes | buy | 28.57 | $0.070 | $2 | Dec 5, 2025 |
 Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?Yes | buy | 47.62 | $0.021 | $1 | Dec 5, 2025 |