Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 17% on 30 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 369 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 21.5% on 31 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 8.5% on 24 Jun 2025. $2.9M traded over the market's life.
671 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 369 points, 30 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2024 | 17.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| go-team | Yes | 26.8K |
| Muddy-Yin | Yes | 22.41K |
| Velvety-Giraffe | Yes | 8.83K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-in-2025
| PhongLeXBT | Yes | 8.71K |
| 589985 | Yes | 7.07K |
| thomas111 | Yes | 6.18K |
| Marcus177 | Yes | 5.94K |
| 1am-874 | Yes | 5K |
| Double-Lunchmeat | Yes | 4.67K |
| Azure Sphinx 8E6A | Yes | 4.28K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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