Analytics
“Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “U.S. nuclear test by...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 1 Apr 2026. $316.12K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 140 daily price points from Nov 6, 2025 UTC to Mar 27, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.2% and 19.0%); 130 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 43.9% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 263 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-nuclear-test-by
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 140 points · 6 Nov 2025 – 27 Mar 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 19.0% |
| 27 Mar 2026 | 0.2% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Solalpha | Yes | 2.61K |
| Glittering-Fraud | Yes | 2K |
| v1notlost | Yes |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 1.87K |
| Reid420 | Yes | 1.66K |
| Kidinichi | Yes | 1.61K |
| Musty-Balloon | Yes | 1.37K |
| LeoKasandra | Yes | 1.34K |
| nikotina11 | Yes | 1.18K |
| Dangerous-Reactant | Yes | 1.15K |
| cobble | Yes | 1.05K |